نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار جغرافیا سیاسی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران
2 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی‌ارشد اندیشه سیاسی، پژوهشکده امام خمینی و انقلاب اسلامی، تهران، ایران
3 استاد جغرافیا سیاسی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Due to its unique geopolitical position at the heart of Eurasia, along major energy corridors and global transit routes, Iran possesses significant potential to play an active role in regional and global economic interactions. However, realizing these potential faces obstacles such as international sanctions, underdeveloped transit infrastructure, geopolitical tensions, and competition from rival corridors. This study adopts a futures studies approach, employing a mixed-methods design (quantitative-qualitative). Data were collected through literature review, questionnaires, and semi-structured interviews with 15 experts, and analyzed using the MICMAC technique and Scenario Wizard software. The results indicate that among 25 identified variables, 8 key factors will most strongly influence Iran’s future role, including relations with global powers, regional confidence-building, industrial development level, transit infrastructure, technological trends, and attraction of foreign investment. Accordingly, three robust scenarios for Iran’s future were developed: two favorable scenarios emphasizing opportunities such as industrial growth, regional engagement, and export diversification, and one critical scenario reflecting challenges like political isolation, oil dependency, and capital flight. The final analysis suggests that achieving favorable scenarios requires sustainable de-escalation in foreign policy, targeted investment in infrastructure, proactive economic diplomacy, and reforms in domestic economic policies. The findings of this study can provide a basis for realistic policymaking to leverage opportunities and mitigate challenges in Iran’s future geopolitical engagement.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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