نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
استادیار گروه جغرافیا دانشگاه پیام نور .تهران.ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
The agricultural sector plays a vital role in ensuring food security, employment, and sustainable rural livelihoods. Understanding trends in agricultural production and rural population changes is essential for sustainable development planning. This study analyzed these trends in Firoozabad County and forecasted future production. Data on cultivated area, production, and crop yield for 1991–2017 (1370–1396), along with rural population data from the 1986, 1996, 2006, and 2016 censuses (1365, 1375, 1385, and 1395), were analyzed using descriptive statistics, normality tests, Pearson correlation, linear regression, ARIMA, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Results showed a significant positive relationship between cultivated area and production (r = 0.673, p < 0.01), with cultivated area explaining 45% of production variability. Accuracy indices revealed that ARIMA (RMSE = 52167.30, MAE = 40730.36, MAPE = 30.02%) outperformed ANN (RMSE = 58423.15, MAE = 45691.42, MAPE = 33.47%) in test data. Accordingly, ARIMA was selected as the main forecasting model and ANN as a complementary approach. ARIMA forecasts indicated a gradual production decline through 2036 (1415). In the ANN model, crop yield and cultivated area had the highest relative importance. Rural population analysis showed a decline during the last decade, coinciding with decreases in cultivated area and production. Continuation of current trends may adversely affect agricultural development and rural settlement sustainability in Firoozabad County. Therefore, effective policies in resource management, productivity enhancement, and support for farming activities are essential for sustaining production capacity and rural population stability.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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