نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
گروه جغرافیا دانشگاه پیام نور ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Creating healthy urban environments is essential for improving quality of life and ensuring sustainable living conditions for urban residents. Therefore, the present study aims to identify the key drivers affecting the future of urban health in Ardabil and to develop future scenarios using a futures studies approach. This research is applied in purpose and descriptive–analytical in methodology. Data were collected through documentary studies, theoretical reviews, and a two-round Delphi survey involving 25 experts in urban planning, geography, urban management, and urban health. A total of 35 variables influencing urban health were identified and analyzed using a cross-impact matrix in MICMAC software to determine their levels of influence and dependence. Subsequently, 27 possible states were defined for these drivers, and based on expert judgments, a cross-impact matrix of states was developed and analyzed using Scenario Wizard software. The findings revealed five strong and internally consistent scenarios for the future of urban health in Ardabil. The results indicate that health governance, institutional coordination, health-oriented planning, equitable resource distribution, and access to healthcare services are the most influential factors shaping the future of urban health. In desirable scenarios, inter sectoral collaboration, institutional coherence, and innovative planning approaches contribute to improving urban health outcomes. In contrast, weak coordination among organizations, managerial inefficiency, and unequal access to services may intensify urban health challenges. Overall, the findings emphasize the pivotal role of effective governance and integrated planning in promoting a healthier, more equitable, and sustainable urban future.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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