Foresight Analysis of Iran’s Geopolitical Role in Regional and Global Economic Interactions

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of Political Geography, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran

2 M. A in Political Thought, Imam Khomeini and Islamic Revolution Research Institute, Tehran, Iran

3 Professor of Political Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Hawarzmi University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Due to its unique geopolitical position at the heart of Eurasia, along major energy corridors and global transit routes, Iran possesses significant potential to play an active role in regional and global economic interactions. However, realizing these potential faces obstacles such as international sanctions, underdeveloped transit infrastructure, geopolitical tensions, and competition from rival corridors. This study adopts a futures studies approach, employing a mixed-methods design (quantitative-qualitative). Data were collected through literature review, questionnaires, and semi-structured interviews with 15 experts, and analyzed using the MICMAC technique and Scenario Wizard software. The results indicate that among 25 identified variables, 8 key factors will most strongly influence Iran’s future role, including relations with global powers, regional confidence-building, industrial development level, transit infrastructure, technological trends, and attraction of foreign investment. Accordingly, three robust scenarios for Iran’s future were developed: two favorable scenarios emphasizing opportunities such as industrial growth, regional engagement, and export diversification, and one critical scenario reflecting challenges like political isolation, oil dependency, and capital flight. The final analysis suggests that achieving favorable scenarios requires sustainable de-escalation in foreign policy, targeted investment in infrastructure, proactive economic diplomacy, and reforms in domestic economic policies. The findings of this study can provide a basis for realistic policymaking to leverage opportunities and mitigate challenges in Iran’s future geopolitical engagement.

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Main Subjects

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    1.  
Geography and Development
Volume 24, Issue 84 - Serial Number 84
September 2026
Pages 117-140

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History

  • Receive Date: 27 September 2025
  • Revise Date: 22 October 2025
  • Accept Date: 26 October 2025

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