A Bayesian Network Approach for Modeling Wind Erosion Intensity in Golestan Province

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 M.Sc of Arid Zone Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

2 Associate Professor of Arid Zone Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

3 Professor of Watershed Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

4 Postdoc of Arid Zone Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

Abstract

 
This research aims to model and map the intensity of wind erosion in Golestan Province. The influential variables affecting the intensity of wind erosion in the study area were identified and selected based on a review of literature and expert opinions. Subsequently, causal relationships between these variables were established using an influence diagram. After forming conditional probability tables for the model variables, the influence diagram was converted into a preliminary Bayesian model using Netica software. The results indicated that the most vulnerable areas regarding wind erosion risk are located in the northern regions (north of Gonbad County), northeastern areas (Maraveh Tappeh County), and northwestern areas (Aq Qala and Gomishan Counties). Consequently, the probability of wind erosion risk is classified as follows: 607,176 hectares in the 0 to 25 percent risk class, 499,910 hectares in the 25 to 50 percent risk class, 437,195 hectares in the 50 to 75 percent risk class, and 486,367 hectares in the 75 to 100 percent risk class. Furthermore, the results indicated a suitable coefficient of determination (R² = 0.7) between the "high" probability class output from the Bayesian belief network model and the IRIFR model score, demonstrating a satisfactory accuracy level for predicting areas affected by wind erosion. Based on the findings from the Bayesian model and the probabilistic map presented in this research, it is possible to examine and prioritize critical wind erosion hotspots in Golestan Province, which is crucial for effective planning and management.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Geography and Development
Volume 24, Issue 82 - Serial Number 82
January 2026
Pages 233-254

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History

  • Receive Date: 15 January 2025
  • Revise Date: 12 March 2025
  • Accept Date: 15 March 2025

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