Analyzing and evaluating the role of cities in the sustainable development of Piranshahr villages with a scenario writing approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Abstract

Therefore, according to this issue, the present study seeks to analyze and evaluate the role of Khorramabad as a regional economic and demographic core in the sustainable development of the surrounding villages using structural analysis and scenario-based approach. The sample was selected from 30 experts and researchers in the field (15 experts in the field of urban issues and 15 experts in the field of rural issues). MICMAC software was used to analyze the data, and Morphol software was used to formulate the scenarios. Out of five thousand scenarios with validity, ten scenarios with high inertia were selected. Among these ten scenarios, two scenarios with the highest probability of occurrence and a high frequency of 90% were analyzed. Finally, the results showed that the city of Khorramabad could not have a significant impact on the sustainable development of the surrounding villages in the current and future situation (based on scenarios). The number of critical scenarios with frequency 8 equals the optimal scenario with frequency 8. Weakness in health care, lack of proper planning for tourism capacity utilization, lack of funds and validities, infrastructureto implement rural development plan programs due to lack of funding are evident in the lack of sustainable development of these villages in the scenarios. It is clear, however, that if the city of Khoramabad has a positive growth as an economic and demographic center of the region in terms of sustainable development indicators, it will have an impact on the sustainable development of these villages.

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References

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Geography and Development
Volume 19, Issue 65 - Serial Number 65
December 2022
Pages 99-126

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  • Receive Date: 11 December 2021
  • Accept Date: 11 December 2021

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