The Future Challenge of Climatic Refugees Regional Developments Case study: South Khorasan

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Abstract

Climatic changes and environmental degradation has had a significant impact on the movement of people around the world. Reactions of people is different in  response to the climatic  changes and the most important  reaction of people is toward the  environmental deterioration  and removal of the relocation risk, that migrations caused by climatic changes and its consequences form the shape of climate refugee. The idea of Climatic refugee or climatic change refugee is a relatively new idea.  Lack of adaptability and the required capacity for climatic changes  are the most important causes of the humans vulnerability. Southern Khorasan Province located  in the southeast of Iran is one of the places vulnerable to climatic changes. In this study to assess the climatic changes, the precipitation and  temperature data  and the  number of days of dust and groundwater resources have been used for 20 years up to 2014. To identify and predict the climatic changes of South Khorasan province, Statistical Down Scaling Model (SDSM) by using LARS- WG model and Evaluation Indices of climatic changes have been used. For the assessment, the climatic changes of 10 stations of the province for period 2010-2030 have been made under Lars Model. By using such data, firstly ,the centers of the crisis due to the climatic changes have been identified and zoned in GIS environment. Then the dispersion of the settlements which are subject to such risks has been specified. For the assessment of climatic refugees, the migration statistics of year 1996 and up to 2011 have been used and the rural settlements at these areas which have been evacuated and removed in this period have been determined. Processing of climatic data shows that most of the  province districts were affected by climatic changes, but south of the province centered by Nehbandan, has had the greatest impacts of climatic changes. These events led to population displacement and the formation of climatic refugees in the south of the province and the population of the southern provinces has moved to the north of the province. The human settlements of the province in 1996 was equal to 61.76  percent which decreased  to 45.61  percent in 2011. So that the role of climatic changes in the last 20 years is evident with the  challenges such as drought, degradation of water resources, desertification, particularly in the west and south part of the province.

Keywords

References

اداره‌ کل ‌منابع طبیعی استان خراسان ‌جنوبی (1394). گزارش بیابان‌زایی در استان خراسان جنوبی.
رحیم‌زاده، فاطمه؛ ابراهیم فتاحی (۱۳۸۴). بررسی تغییرپذیری اقلیمی در ایران با بهره‌گیری از مدل‌های‌ آماری، تحقیقات منابع آب ایران.
غفاریان، پدرام؛ فاطمه رحیم­زاده (1389). بررسی همدیدی بارش در شمال‌غرب ایران‌مطالعه موردی:‌بارش‌ فرین ایستگاه‌ ارومیه، نشریه‌ پژوهش‌های اقلیم‌‌شناسی. شماره سوم ‌و چهارم. پاییز و زمستان. صفحه 80.
Warner, Koko (2008). The Impact of Environmental Degradation on Migration Flows across Countries. In: Working (2008). Bonn: United Nations, P: 5.
Arimoto, R (2002). Relationships to source, troposphere chemistry, transport and deposition, Earth science, P: 30.
Beniston, Martin (2004). Issues Relating to Environmental Change & Population Migrations. A Climatologist's Perspective in J. D. Unruh, M. S. Krol, and N. Kliot eds Environmental Change and Its Implications for Population Migration, Kluwer, Dordrecht PP:1-24.
Castles, Stephen (2002). Environmental change and forced migration: making sense of the debate New Issues in Refugee Research - UNHCR Working. P: 70.
Crepeau, F, et al., Forced Migration and Global Process: A View from Forced Migration Studies. Lanham, MD.: Lexington Books, P:109.
El-Hinnawi, Essam (1985). Environmental Refugees United Nations Environmental Program, Nairobi, P: 99.
Frich P, Alexander LV, Della-Marta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Klein Tank AMG. Peterson T (2002). Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century.Climate Research,19:193-12.
Gibney, M and Hansen, R, eds (2005). Immigration and Asylum: From 1900 to the Present (3Vol.), Santa Barbara: ABC-Clio. P:78.
Hammer, Thomas (2004). Desertification and Migration in J. D. Unruh, M. S. Krol, and N. Kliot eds Environmental Change and Its Implications for Population Migration, Kluwer, Dordrecht, P: 232.
Hélène Flautre, Jean Lambert, Ska Keller and Barbara Lochbihle (2013). Climate Change Refuge and Migration, the green in the European parliament, P: 67.
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Assessing the Evidence: Environment, Climate Change and Migration in Bangladesh (Dhaka: IOM, 2010) 26. 
IPCC,Climate Change(2007).Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: CUP, 2007) P: 317.
Kliot, Nurit (2004). Environmentally Induced Population Movements:Their Complex Sources and Consequences - A Critical Review in J. D. Unruh, M. S. Krol & N. Kliot eds Environmental Change and Its Implications for Population Migration, Kluwer, Dordrecht, P: 69.
McAdam, J (2012). Climate Change, Forced Migration, and International Law. Oxford: Oxford University Press, P: 66.
Morrissey, J (2009).Environmental Change and Forced Migration: A State of the Art Review’ Refugee Studies Centre Background Paper 99.
Myers, N (1993). Environmental refugees in a globally warmed world Bioscience 43.752-761.
Nielsengammon,J.w.,F,Zhang.,A.M,Odins.,B,Myoung (2004). Extreme Rainfall in Texas: Patterns and predictability", Department of Atmospheric  Sciences Texas A&M University College Station P: 34.
Stern, Sir Nicholas (2006). The Stern Review on the Economic Effects of Climate Change (Report to the British Government)Cambridge University Press (to be published 2007), Cambridge. Retrieved on 27 July 2007 from, P:55.
Vogt, W (1948). Road to Survival, New York: William Sloane Associates) in F. Germane,P:6.
Wirsching S, Emberson, P. and Keber, G, (2013). Climate Refuge, Word Council of Charvhes publication, Switzerland, P: 171.
 
Geography and Development
Volume 15, Issue 48
September 2017
Pages 1-18

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 12 September 2017
  • Accept Date: 12 September 2017

Share

How to cite

Statistics