Plausible Scenarios of the Peri-Urban Economy of Tehran Metropolis in the Post-covid19 Era (Case study: Central district of Ray County)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Postdoc of Human Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Human Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The outbreak of the Corona epidemic has left various effects on the economic situation of the world, especially the local economy and among them the rural economy. Therefore, the economy of the villages in the outskirts of Tehran metropolis has also been affected by the effects of this epidemic and will see changes in the future. Considering the multi-functional role of the villages of Ray County in providing food security for the citizens of Tehran metropolis, development policies in the post-corona era in such spaces should focus on sustainable development and livelihood goals. Also, in order to achieve the goals of sustainable development and economic resilience in this area, it is necessary to compile scenarios for the rural economy in the post-corona era in order to form the basis for strategic decision-making in the future in this field. Based on the obtained results, the most important drivers and key factors affecting the rural economy in the studied area in order of importance; Marginalization, commodification of land, destruction of agricultural land, reduction of investment in the agricultural sector, diversification of economic activities, increase in urban sprawl, increase in inflation, reduction of labor force and the occurrence of Corona epidemic. Finally, based on these drivers, three scenarios were drawn for the economy of the villages in the central part of Ray County in the post- covid19 era outbreak, including the optimistic scenario, the continuation of the existing trend, and the disaster scenario; With this rationale, by illustrating these scenarios, a suitable platform for decision-making and sustainable future planning will be provided in the field of facing wild cards such as the Corona disease, in the scope of the study.

Keywords

References

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History

  • Receive Date: 24 November 2024
  • Accept Date: 24 November 2024

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