Simulation of the Future Climatic Changes in Jask Area and Its Impact on Hara Forests

Document Type : Research Paper

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Abstract

Mangrove tide etangs which are placed at border line between the  arid and sea-land, have a considerable ecological  and social–economical value.
This study uses (LARS-WG) along with two GCM models (MIRH and HadCM3) and the A1B scenarios to simulate  climatic variables of minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall in the past and future periods. In reviewing the uncertainties, the  results indicate  the high capability of  LARS-WG model in simulation of  climatic variables simulation specially in arid ecosystems. Based on MIHR downscaling results, minimum and maximum temperatures will increase in cold season from November to March up to ~+4.21°C and +4.7°C respectively. While increasing up to ~+3.62°C and +3.55°C in the warm season from June to October as well. Based on HadCM3 results, minimum and maximum temperatures will increase in cold season up to +3.03°C and +3.3°C in warm season at the end of this century(2100) . Maximum temperature will increase above 38°C during the warm season within the years 2080-2099. It is predicted that the difference between day and night temperature will reach to the minimum level. In this manner, this condition will affect ecological and biological Mangrove processes. The linear regression of observed T-min data shows a +3.14 °C increase over the past 42 years. Based on HadCM3 and MIRH model results, precipitation will increase in warm months and decrease in cold months within the years 2080-2099.

Keywords

Geography and Development
Volume 13, Issue 41 - Serial Number 41
December 2016
Pages 87-104

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History

  • Receive Date: 09 January 2016
  • Accept Date: 09 January 2016

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