Foresight of Food Production Systems with Emphasis on Greenhouse Cultivation Businesses in Iran (Case study: Yazdabad countryside, Falavarjan)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D Student of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

2 Associate Professor of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

10.22111/gdij.2024.47917.3617

Abstract

Understanding the future of greenhouse cultivation is of great importance. The research was aimed to draw its future images in Iran. Both exploratory and normative approaches of future studies were adopted. Content analysis, future triangle and causal layered analysis methods were used to answer the questions. Key stakeholders of this business in the western hinterland of Isfahan capital city were interviewed, and news and previous studies were also collected. Three initial images of "Armanshahri" (Utopian), "Viranshahri" (Dystopia), and "Shahineshahri" (Heterotopian) were contently discovered. Given the importance of past and present trends and events, the weight of history, present pressures, and future pulls were also identified and placed in the future triangle. The "Development of the country's greenhouses" Agenda, as a pull for the future, is a target plan supported by the government. However, due to the weight of the past, the weakness of present pressures, and the insufficient pull of the future, the triangle did not have enough momentum to rotate. Also, the results of CLA showed that there is no problem in the deepest layer, the metaphor, the defects of litanies and systemic shortcomings are more rooted in the middle layer, the discourse and worldview that implies intensive agriculture and an unsustainable economy. Finally, based on a more realistic scenario, the quantitative growth of the sector will continue, with producers enduring the shocks and pressures of a weak and unstable economy. And, who are participated in industrial clusters and connected to successful cooperatives and markets can qualify their development cycles

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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History

  • Receive Date: 06 February 2024
  • Revise Date: 17 June 2024
  • Accept Date: 03 July 2024

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