Study of Manjil wind changes and its position in sustainable development of the area

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

PNU University center of Aran & Bidgol

10.22111/gdij.2020.5466

Abstract

Wind, like other climatic factors affect different aspects of human life. The research method is descriptive-analytic. The purpose of the study is to study the trend of wind changes in the manjil. The daily wind speed data of the Manjil Station was obtained from the Iranian Meteorological Organization during the statistical period of 1993-2016. Using the Beaufort scale, the frequency of maximum wind speed was measured annually and monthly. Log-normal distribution, Weibull and the lowest level was used to determine wind speed probability density distribution. Examine possible changes in the wind in time series, the mean and variance in the probability density function curves were compared. Using three-level polynomial model, for the year and all months, three periods of forecasting were performed. The results showed that almost all of the months of the year are experiencing stormy weather, except for December. The mean and variance in the two time periods 2004-1993 and 2016-2005 were compared. The results showed that the average decrease in all months reduces the probability of occurrence of gusts and increases the occurrence of the breeze in winter and autumn. Increased variance in April, June, July and November showed an increase in the occurrence of extreme high and low. Projections indicate that the wind speed has a periodic fluctuation.

Keywords

References

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  • Receive Date: 13 June 2020
  • Accept Date: 13 June 2020

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