دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان مجله جغرافیا و توسعه 1735-0735 10 29 2012 12 21 The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Total Ozone Variations in Isfahan ارتباط الگوهای گردشی جو با تغییرات اُزون کلی در اصفهان-عباسعلی آروین 1 14 116 10.22111/gdij.2013.116 FA Journal Article 2013 03 02 Geography and Development 10nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013 Received : 21/9/2011 Accepted : 17/7/2012 PP : 1- 5 The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Total Ozone Variations in Isfahan Dr. Abbasali Arvin (Spanani) Assistant Professor of Climatology University of Payame Noor Introduction The ozone layer as a protective shield life on biosphere has very oscillations from view point of quantity and volume. The ozone gases in both troposphere and stratosphere layers have been affecting on human life by two ways. The ozone in stratospheric that its name is surface ozone is an extremely poisonous gases and has destructive affect on lung and plant tissue. The surface ozone has been measured in measurement pollutant stations as one of seven pollutant gases. The ozone gas in stratospheric layer unlike the surface ozone is very necessary for human and other organism lives. The stratospheric ozone is measured in meteorological stations by name of total ozone (TO). Studies show that amount of ozone in stratospheric layer has been reduced. Variations in ozone layer were effected of changing in solar radiation, volcano eruption cosmic dust, meteoric stones and etc. that those get name as natural parameter of ozone changes. Effect of natural parameter concentration on stratospheric ozone lead to fix ozone content in long term (spanani 2004). The amount of ozone in stratospheric layer particularly in the lower stratospheric has considerable oscillations (increase/decrease) under the affection of atmospheric activities . For example V. C. Roldugin (2000) showed that passing the wave crest in the pressure field ceases the convergence of ozone poor air under the tropopause and divergence of ozone rich air above the tropopause and decreases the ozone content. The passing of a wave through simulate the opposite process and increase the ozone content T. Narayana Rao at all (2003) opining that the climatology of ozone clearly shows a significant seasonal cycle with the ozone maxima changing with height. The monthly variability of ozone as well as its seasonal maximum is found near the tropopause. Variation in tropopause height is due mainly to the passage of tropospheric weather systems and is responsible for the large monthly variability of ozone near the tropopause. In the lower stratosphere, inter annual variations are at a maximum in winter and spring, and are the result of variations in wave driven stratospheric circulation, which peaks in winter. Regarding this matter that total ozone have been affected from atmospheric parameter in lower stratosphere or upper troposphere, we decide to study the role of pattern circulation on ozone variations in Isfahan. Research Methodology In this research the environmental to circulation method has been used for synoptic patterns analysis. The mean daily of total ozone (TO) data related to Isfahan ozone survey center in the time period of 2005-2009 were used. From the total 1975 days, 174 days was missing value therefore the daily data of 1801 days (TO) have been used in analysis. The days that (TO) were under 250/above 310Du considered as min/max amount of ozone. The days that (TO) also was around the mean (284 Du) and had highest frequency (274 Du) had been used. Then mean daily of geo-potential height for 100, 300 and 500mb levels for distance of 0 to 80° east and 10° to 70° North was taken from the NCEP/NCAR climatic data center. The 100 and 300mb levels were selected for finding the trough or ridge affect and the 500mb to find the low height (low pressure) or high height (high pressure) have been selected to find atmospheric stability or instability affecting on ozone variation. Correlation methods and multiple liner regression have been used for relation analysis between TO maps and synoptic pattern maps. For this aim, mean daily data of total ozone for distance of geographical 10°*10° degree had been got from the total ozone spectrometer mapping center (NASSA/GSFC). Then the total ozone isolate maps were drawn for days that the total ozone is max, min or high frequency. Then by the use of correlation relation, the total daily amount of ozone and geo potential were analyzed. Discussion and Results The ozone variability depends on the atmospheric activity. Thus it is so variable in winter due to atmospheric instability, high contents in spring due to universal increasing, low variability caused by atmospheric stability in summer and low content cased by the global decrease of ozone in autumn. We review two periods (one of them related to minimum and another to maximum of total ozone (TO) content) of circulation patterns from the 21 periods. The maps of 8 to 10 December 2005 were analyzed as the minimum ozone indicates a stable and calm atmosphere on Iran. On December eighth, a ridge is entering in to Iran at elevation 100 & 300 mb, and includes the negative vortices and anticyclone. In this day the amount of ozone is 236 Du. At December ninth, the ridge pattern is at 100 and 300mb elevation and anticyclone condition , at 500mb elevation is placed on Iran completely and the content of total ozone has decreased to 222Du. Thus in time that ridge axes is at 100 and 300mb elevation and dynamic anticyclone at elevation 500mb is placed on Isfahan completely, the ozone poor air is transferred to Isfahan and the total ozone is decreased to the lowest amount. The maps of 30 March to 1 April 2009 are analyzed as the maximum pattern of TO. An instability atmospheric has overcome on Isfahan in this period. The trough pattern in 100mb and a completely cyclone typical in 500mb that deepens to 300mb level was on Iran that has caused the increase of TO to 349Du. The trough axes in 100mb level and very deep cyclone in 500mb to 300mb level has been set in center of Iran that the TO has increased to 371Du in day 31 March. Amount of 7.4 millimeter rainfall has been recorded in Isfahan meteorological station on 31March. Thus the relation between the daily maps of TO with the pattern of synoptic maps were analyzed through correlation relations. The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and … The analyses show that at he three levels of 100,300 and 500 mb , there are a significant inverse relation between TO and geo-potential height in 0.01 sig level. The most important effective variable in maximum occurrence time is the changes of 100mb level height and in mode occurrence and minimum amount of ozone is the changes of 300 mb level height . Relationship between geo-potential variation and TO content in upper level of troposphere (100 and 300mb) is stronger because density of ozone is higher under the tropopouse. Thus with increase/decrease of geo-potential height (high/low pressure conditions), the TO increase/ decrease simultaneously. Mass effect of three level balance on TO variability is surveyed by linear multiple regression method and show that geo-potential height affect on TO by correlation coefficient of R=0.994, R=0.885 and R=0.897 in order to mod, maximum and minimum of TO occurrences. Thus 89.1%, 80.5% and 78.4% of TO variations is explained by variability of geo-potential height in order mod, maximum and minimum of TO occurrences. Density of ozone iso-path in around of low pressure center in 500mb level show that the TO have been increased with the decrease of atmospheric pressure. Conclusion Our research showed that a part of TO variation in Isfahan correlated with geo-potential height variations in troposphere layer. The occurrence of content min/max of TO has been adapted with ridge/trough pattern in 100 and 300mb levels and dynamic anticyclone/dynamic cyclone in 500mb level. The lowest/highest TO content occurred in time that ridge/trough axes taken place on Iran and Isfahan. TO oscillation is low in warm season and synoptic parameter affect on its variation is very low. Thus atmospheric instability ceased variety and oscillation of TO in cold season but atmospheric stability ceased to fix content of TO in warm season. There is a significant reverse correlation between geo-potential height and content of TO that this relation is stronger in upper level of troposphere. Keywords: Isfahan, Total ozone (TO), Circulation patterns, Stratosphere, Multi variable linear regression. Refrences 1. Spanani, Abbasali (2004). Ozone and its Role in the life of earth, Geographical Space Magazine, No.11. 2. Atayee, Hoshmand (2008). Identification and Analysis of Circular Patterns of ,Middle atmosphere in Heavy precipitation Years of Iran, No.90. 3. Alijani, Bohlool (2006). Synoptic climatology, Samt Publication, Tehran. 4. Mahamed, Ahmad (1998), (1999). Ozone Layer (Shield of Life), Iran Research Group. 5. Masoodian. A (2005). Thirty years ridge of circular patterns of Iran middle atmosphere, Geography and Regional Development Magazine, No.7. 6. Alijani. B (2006). Synoptic Climatology, Samt publication, Tehran. Ataei. H (2008). Recognition and Analysis of circulation pattern middle atmospheric Level in Rainy Region in Iran, Geographical Research, No. 90. 8. Chandramadhab Pal (2010) Variability of total ozone over India and its adjoining regions during 1997-2008, Atmospheric Environment 44. 9. E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, C. Schnadt, T. Egorova, M. Wild, A. Ohmura, V. Zubov, W. Schmutz, Th. Peter (2005). Assessment of the ozone and temperature variability during 1979–1993 with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, Advances in Space Research 35. 10. E. Rozanova, T. Egorovab, W. Schmutzb, Th. Peter (2006). Simulation of the stratospheric ozone and temperature response to the solar irradiance variability during sun rotation cycle, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 68. Ezatian. V. Bagheri. A (2009). Quality Control of Ozone Data By Use of TOMS Spectrometers Data. 4th International Conference of Climate Chang. Ezatian. V. Asadieskoei. E (2010). Application of Statistical Methods in Tropospheric ozone oscillation analysis, Iran Geo-physic Journal. Ghvidelrahimi. Y (2010). Mapping and interpretation of Climate Synoptic by Use of Grads Softward, Sahadanesh, Tehran. Jahanbakhsh. S. Karami. F (1999). Geographical Research, No. 54 & 55. 15. J. Leclair De Bellevuea, J. L. Baraya, S. Baldya, G. Ancelletb, R. Diabc, F. Ravetta (2007). Simulations of stratospheric to tropospheric transport during the tropical cyclone Marlene event, Atmospheric Environment 41. 16. Johannes Staehelin, Jorg Moder, Andrea K. Weiss, Christof Appenzeller (2002). Long-team ozone trends in Northern mid – latitudes With special emphasis on the contribution of changes in dynamics. Physics and Chemistry of the earth. 17. J. L. Atti, and R. Abida (2004). An observed and analyzed stratospheric ozone intrusion over the high Canadian Arctic UTLS region during the summer of 2003, Advances in Space Research 34. 18. M. Antón, M. López, A. Serrano, M. Bañón, J. A. García (2010). Diurnal variability of total ozone column over Madrid (Spain), Atmospheric Environment. 19. M. Martin, T. Toroshelidze, W. E. Alves, M. G. S Mello, A. A. Guser, G. I. Pugacheva (1999). Solar cycle and global long team variations of stratospheric ozone, Adv Space Res. 20. Matthew R. Bassford, Chris A. McLinden, Kimberly Strong (2001). Zenith-sky observations of stratospheric gases: the sensitivity of air mass factors to geophysical parameters and the influence of troposphere clouds, Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy & Radiative Transfer 68. Mohamed. A (1998). Ozone Layer (Shield of Life) Iran Research Grop. Tehran. Masoodian. A (2006). Synoptic Climatology and its Application in Environmental Studies, Brant Yarnal, Isfahan University. Masoodian. A. Gholizade. M. Mohamadi. B (2008). Cold Winds of Iran (Case Study: Cold Winds of Bahman 1982 Sanandaj) Geographical Research, No. 90. 24. Nasiri. B. Ghaemi. H (1999). Synoptic and Dynamic Patterns Analysis of Karkhe and Dez Floods, Geographical Research, No. 54 & 55. 25. The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and … N. Semane, V. H. Peuch, L. El Amraoui, H. Bencherif, S. Massart, D. Cariolle, Piotr V. Nevodovskiy, Alexsandr V. Morozhenko (2009). Studies of stratospheric ozone layer from near-earth orbit utilizing ultraviolet Polari meter, Acta Astronautica 64. 26. Renata De winter-Sorkina (2001). Impact of ozone layer depletion I: ozone depletion climatology, Atmospheric Environmen. 27. S. Hassanzadeha, F. Hosseinibalama, M. Omidvari (2008). Statistical methods and regression analysis of stratospheric ozone and meteorological variables in Isfahan, Physica A 387. 28. Sophie Godin-Beekmann (2010). Spatial observation of the ozone layer Observation spatial de la couched ozone, C. R. Geosciences 342. 29. Spanani. A (2004). Ozone and its Roll on Earth Life, Geographical Space, No.11. 30. T. Narayana Rao, J. Arvelius, S. Kirkwood, P. von der Gathen (2004). Climatology of ozone in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over the European ArcticAdvances in Space Research 34. 31. V. C. Roldugin, G. N. Nikulin and K. Henriksen (2000). Wave-Like Ozone Movements, Phys. Chem. Earth, vol. 25, No. 5-6. 32. W. J Collins, D. S. Stevenson, C. E. Johmson, R. G. Derwent (2000). The European regional ozone distribution and its links with the global scale for the years 1992 and 2015, Atmospheric Environment. 33. Xihong Wang and Diane V. Michelangeli (2006). A Review of Polar S Stratospheric Cloud Formation China Particulogy, Vol.4, No. 6. چکیده لایه‌ی اُزون به عنوان سپر حفاظتی حیات بر روی کره زمین، دارای تغییرات زیادی از نظر حجم و مقدار است. در این پژوهش اثر عوامل اقلیمی بر تغییرات اُزون کلی در ایستگاه اصفهان مورد مطالعه قرار گرفت و نشان داده شد، بخشی از نوسانات روزانه‌ی اُزون مربوط به الگوهای گردشی جو در سطوح فوقانی و میانی جو است. به این ترتیب شرایط فراز (پشته)/فرود (تراف) در سطح 100 و 300 میلیباری و واچرخند/چرخند در سطح 500 میلی باری موجب کاهش/افزایش قابل توجه در مقدار اُزون کلی در فصل سرد سال که پویش جو فعال است، میگردد و زمانی که محور تراف/فراز بر روی اصفهان قرار دارد، میزان اُزون به حداکثر/حداقل میزان خود میرسد. مقادیر مُد دادهها (274 دابسون) که عمدتاً در فصل گرم سال اتفاق میاُفتد با پُر ارتفاع عمیق در تراز 100 میلیباری همراه است. در سطح 300 و 500 میلیباری در زمان وقوع مُد دادهها، خطوط هم ارتفاع آرایشمداری دارند که اندکی به سمت فراز میل میکند. به این ترتیب فعالیّت پویشی جو در فصل سرد، تغییر و نوسان زیاد اُزون کلی را با باعث میگردد و پایداری جو در فصل گرم سال، تثبیت مقدار اُزون کلی را در پی دارد. از نظر آماری بین نقشههای هم‌مقدار میانگین روزانه اُزون کلی و نقشههای میانگین ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل همبستگی معکوس معناداری در سطح اطمینان 01/0 درصد در هر سه سطح 100، 300 و 500 میلیباری وجود دارد که در سطوح 100 و 300 میلی‌باری قوی‌تر است. بر اساس تحلیل رگرسیون خطی به ترتیب 1/89، 5/80 و 4/78 درصد تغییرات مقدار اُزون در رخدادهای مُد، مقادیر حداکثر و حداقل توسط تغییرات ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل تبیین می‌گردد. انطباق نقشههای هم‌مقدار اُزون کلی با نقشههای ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل نیز نشان داد، خطوط هم‌مقدار اُزون در منطقه وقوع کم‌فشار پویشی بر روی اصفهان متراکم و دارای مقادیر حداکثر است

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دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان مجله جغرافیا و توسعه 1735-0735 10 29 2012 12 21 Geography and Development 10nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013 Received : 17/8/2011 Accepted : 17/7/2012 PP : 6 - 9 Spatial Modeling of Annual Precipitation in Iran Dr. Hossein Asakereh Associate Professor of Climatology University of Zanjan Zohre SeifiPour M. Sc of Climatology University of Zanjan مدل سازی مکانی بارش سالانه¬ی ایران دکتر حسین عساکره ، زهره سیفی¬پور 15 30 117 10.22111/gdij.2013.117 FA Journal Article 2013 03 02 10nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013 Received : 17/8/2011 Accepted : 17/7/2012 PP : 6 - 9 Spatial Modeling of Annual Precipitation in Iran Dr. Hossein Asakereh Associate Professor of Climatology University of Zanjan Zohre SeifiPour M. Sc of Climatology University of Zanjan Introduction Due to deep, complex and everlasting interaction between precipitation and climatic elements-factors, there are changes and varieties in both time and space dimensions of precipitation. So that climate experts and related scientists take their attentions to this phenomenon. An approach to do this kind of investigations is to describe spatial variations based on spatial statistics. The major spatial non-stationary of Iran precipitation is due to variation in situation, elevation and topography characters (slope and its direction) in this country. Circumstances of every one of these characters could determine the precipitation spatial patterns. Accordingly understanding spatial distribution of precipitation and its mechanism are important aspect in climatological researches. One of the common statistical models in which it is possible to determine the relation between variables as well as reconstruct, estimating and forecasting data is multivariate regression model. These sorts of models are useful for time series analyses as well as spatial modeling. One of the regression models that could be used in spatial analyses is called Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). In current study it will be attempted to introduce this approach and using General Regression (GR) to justify spatial variation of precipitation in Iran based on 1436 stations in Iran. Research Methodology In this research Esfezary data base have been used. This daily data based contain 15998 days and 7187 pixels (15*15 KM) of precipitation over Iran. Accordingly the data matrix is created in 15998* 7187 and S-mode dimension. This matrix data base is estimated by using 1436 stations and Kriging method. To achieve independent variables, digital elevation map by 15*15 KM resolution has been created. So that, spatial (including longitude and latitude) and topographic (including slope magnitude and aspect) characters have been derived. Accordingly a data base has been created that contain spatial characters, topographic features and precipitation amounts. Spatial Modeling of Annual Precipitation in Iran The proper regression model on precipitation has been chosen based on spatial and topographical characters. Multivariate General Regression (MGR) for these m independent variables is defined as follow: Where Ri is precipitation in a given pixel that depends on” m “climatic factors. Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) allows local rather than global parameters to be estimated and the above model is rewritten as: In geographically weighted regression, the parameter estimates are made using an approach in which the contribution of a sample to the analysis is weighted based on its spatial proximity to the specific location under consideration. Thus the weighting of an observation is no longer constant in the calibration but varies with different locations. Data from observations close to the location under consideration are weighted more than data from observations far away. In this paper spatial distribution of precipitation had been modeled using General Regression and Geographical Weighted Regression. Finally the most effective variables on precipitation have been clustered using Euclidean distance method and Ward clustering method. Discussion and Results Annual mean of Iran precipitation is about 256 mm. Spatial coefficient of variation of Iran precipitation is about 79%. Generally distribution of precipitation isohyets over Iran follows topographic features. The General Regression Model for precipitation is as follow: This model can justify about 48% of spatial distribution of precipitation. Using GWR model tends to different coefficients of spatial variables. Accordingly three regions have been denoted: The first region in which precipitation is affected by elevation. This region is about 43% out of the all area of the country that located in northwest, inner parts and southeast of Iran. Precipitation of second region is affected by hillside of mountains in west of country that covers 18% of Iran. The precipitation of third region that is about 39% of the country is determined by slope more than other factors. This region located in small parts of northwest, west and southeast of Iran. Conclusion In order to justifying spatial changes of precipitation over Iran, 1436 stations and GWR technique have been applied. Based on GWR model, elevation in northwest and inner parts of Iran, direction of slop in Zagros mountain chain and the slop in northeast and Caspian coast are the spatial factors that more controlling precipitation Keywords: Cluster analyses, Spatial autocorrelation, Geographically weighted regression (GWR), Spatial Modeling. Refrences Alijani. B (1995). The Role of Alborz Mountain Chain on Elevation Distribution of Precipitation. Geographic Research Quarterly. Vol 38. Alijani. B (2002). The Role of Statistics on Developing of Geography Science. The 6th of International Conference of Iran Statistic. Trbiat Modares University. Tehran. Iran. 3. Alijani B (2008). Effect of Zagros Mountain on the Spatial Distribution of Precipitation, Journal of Mountain Sciences, 5. Asakereh. H (2000). Spatial Modeling of Climate Elements. A Case Study: Annual Precipitation of Isfahan Province. Geographic Research Quarterly. Vol 74. Asakereh. H (2010). Study of Dry Days Probability in Golestan Province by Using Markov Chain Model. Geography and Development. Vol 17. Brunsdon C, McClatchey. J and Unwin. D.J (2001). Spatial Variation in the Average Rainfall – Altitude Relationship in Great Britain: An Approach Using Geographically Weighted Regression. Int. J. Climatol. 21. Fotheringham. A. S, Brunsdon. C , Charlton. M (2002). Geographically Weighted Regression, John Wiley & Son, UK. Foody G. M (2003). Geographical Weighting as a Further Refinement to Regression Modeling an Example Focused on the NDVI-Rainfall Relationship, Remote Sensing of Environment, 88. Gao. X, Asami. Y and Chung Chang-Jo F (2006). An Empirical Evaluation of Spatial Regression Models. Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 1040–1051 Ghayoor H, Masodian S. A (1996). Study of Spatial Correlation of Precipitation and Elevation in Iran. Geographic Research Quarterly. Vol 41. Glazirin G.E (1997). Precipitation Distribution with Altitude, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 58. Griffith Daniel A (2009). Spatial Autocorrelation, International Encyclopedia of Human Geography. Hansen. J and Lebedeff, S (1987). Global Trend of Measured Surface Air Temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research. 92. Harris. P, Fotheringham A. S, Crespo R, Charlton M.(2010). The Use of Geographically Weighted Regression for Spatial Prediction: An Evaluation Weighted of Models Using Simulated Data Sets, Mathematical Geosciences, 42. Hasseler,U. (1997). Simple Regression with Time Trend. Journal of Time Series Analysis Vol.21 No1. Huang Y, Leung Y (2002) Analyzing Regional Industrialization in Jiangsu Province Using Geographically Weighted Regression. J Geogr Syst 4. Jedari. E. J. (1994). Geomorphology of Iran, Payam Noor Publication. Jones, P. D., Raper, S. C. B. , Bradley. R. S , Diaz. H. F. , Kelly, P.M. and Wigley, T.M.L. (1986) Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Variation: 1851-1984. J.clim. Appl . Meteorol. 25. Spatial Modeling of Annual Precipitation in Iran Khalili. A. (1995). Three Dimensional Changes of Long Term of Atmospheric Annual Temperature over Iran. Nivar. Vol. 32, 13-34. Legendre P.(1993). Spatial Autocorrelation: Trouble or New Paradigm, Eclogy, 74:1659-1673. Masodian. S. A. (1996). Analyses of Structure of Monthly Temperature of Iran. Research Journal of Isfahan University. Vol 1,2. 87-96. Masoodian S.A(2008). On Precipitation Mapping in Iran , Journal of Humanities the University of Isfahan , 30:68-80. Mojarad F, Moradi Farhaji M. (1996). Modeling the Relationships of Precipitation and Elevation in Zagros area. Modares Quarterly. Vol 2. 163-182. Moradi. H. (1997). The Role of Caspian Sea on Precipitation of North Coast of the Country. Marian science of Iran. Vol 2, 3. 84-85. Ranhao S., Baiping Z. and Jing T.(2008). A Multivariate Regression Model for Predicting Precipitation in the Daqing Mountains, Mountain Research and Development. 28:318-325. Razai T and Azizi GH. (2008). Study of Spatial Distribution of Seasonal and Annual Precipitation in West of Iran. Geographic Research. Vol. 65. 18-39. Sari saraf. B, Rajaei B., Mesri. A. and Almdari, P. (2009). Study the Relationship of Precipitation and Topography in East and West of Talesh Hillside. Geography and Environmental Planning. Vol 35. 63-84. Singh. P and Kumar. N. (1997). Effect of Orography on Precipitation in the Western Himalayan Region", Journal of Hydrology,199:183-206. Wheeler. D. and Tiefelsdorf M.(2005). Multicollinearity and Correlation among Local Regression Coefficients in Geographically Weighted Regression, Journal of Geographical Systems, 7:161-187. Zhang. T., Gove. J.H and Heath. L. S (2005). Spatial Residual Analysis of Six Modeling Techniques, Ecological Modeling, 186:154-177. Zhang. T. and Lin. G (2007) .A Decomposition of Moran's I for Clustering Detection. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 51: 6123-6137. چکیده بخش عمدهای از نامانایی مکانی بارش ایران حاصل تنوع عوامل مکانی نظیر موقعیت، ارتفاع و ویژگیهای توپوگرافی (شیب و جهتگیری آن) در این سرزمین گسترده است. چگونگی هریک از این ویژگیها قادر است الگوی رفتار مکانی بارش را تعیین کند. بدین دلیل شناخت رفتار مکانی بارش و سازوکار آن از جنبههای مهم در مطالعات اقلیمشناختی است. از این رو تلاش شد، با در نظر گرفتن عوامل مکانی و با بهرهگیری از پایگاه داده‎ی اسفزاری ویرایش نخست (داده‎های شبکه‎ای بارش روزانه‎ی ایران با توان تفکیک مکانی داده‎ها 15 15 کیلومتر) و براساس داده‎های 1436 ایستگاه همدید، اقلیمی و بارانسنجی در گسترهی کشور، دو مدل رگرسیون عمومی (کلی) و رگرسیون موزون جغرافیایی بر بارش کشور برازش یابد. نتایج حاصل شده نشان داد که در بین دو مدل مذکور، برآورد حاصل از به کارگیری رگرسیون موزون جغرافیایی (GWR) به واقعیت نزدیکتر است. بر همین اساس معلوم شد که ارتفاعات در شمال غرب و نواحی داخلی، جهت دامنهها در زاگرس و شیب در شمالشرق و نواحی خزری مهمترین عامل مکانی مؤثر بر بارش به شمار میآیند. کلیدواژها: تحلیل خوشهای، خودهمبستگی مکانی، رگرسیون موزون جغرافیایی. مدلسازی مکانی.

https://gdij.usb.ac.ir/article_117_b6d638fd8af1b91fa4c52edb8062578e.pdf

دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان مجله جغرافیا و توسعه 1735-0735 10 29 2012 12 21 Geography and Development 10nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013 Received : 25/5/2011 Accepted : 17/7/2012 PP : 10 - 13 Modeling Deforestation Using Logistic Regression, GIS and RS Case study: Northern Forests of the Ilam Province Dr. Saleh Arekhi Assistant Profesor of Geography University of Golestan Aliakbar Jafarzadeh M.Sc of Forestry University of Sari Saleh Yousefi M.Sc of Watershed Management University of Tarbiat Modarres Noor شبیه¬سازی تخریب جنگل با استفاده از رگرسیون لجستیک، GIS و سنجش از دور مورد: جنگل¬های شمال ایلام دکتر صالح آرخی ، علی¬اکبر جعفرزاده ، صالح یوسفی 31 42 118 10.22111/gdij.2013.118 FA Journal Article 2013 03 02 Introduction Land use and land cover are not static and are frequently subject to change due to human activities, also, with attention to the trend of deforestation in recent years, is very important to estimate the degradation in the different time periods. Access to information related to the past and realizing the changes are necessary for solving deforestation problem. Identify and detect these changes can help planners and managers to identify effective factors in land use and land cover changes and have to be useful and effective programming for their control. Iran west forests is important in terms of area, environmental issues, soil and water resources conservation which during the past decades due to social and economic factors, lack of comprehensive management and etc lost its production capacity and this trend threatens the future of the region forests. As a result, planning and management of these forests are associated with many problems which lack the necessary studies in this area will contribute to the above issue. To explore and evaluate these changes, using remote sensing and GIS techniques and tools can have a considerable effect to generate spatial information and having analytical capabilities. In the present study, using the information resulting from comparing satellite images of two different periods, identify changes trend in the studied forests and then with applying GIS analyzes to identify effective factors in these changes can measure and the results presented in thematic maps and finally suggested degradation probability model for the study area. Research Methodology In this research, remote sensing data include images of MSS (1976) and TM and also 1:50.000 topographic maps and 1:20.000 aerial photos of region were used. In order to classifying and preparing forest map related to the study years, training samples are prepared with help of ground operations using GPS device and also using processing and satellite images enhancement in environment of IDRISI software and finally, training sites of forest and non-forest areas were prepared. Also, the spectral response of different bands for each of training site classes were drawn and interpreted. After geo-referencing satellite images using ground control points, map of forest extent related to years of 1976 and 2007 through classification on original and processed images of MSS and TM was prepared. After preparing maps of forest extent related to years of 1976 and 2007, each of the mentioned maps were classified into two categories of forest and non-forest and after ensuring the accuracy of the maps produced in GIS environment for preparing changes map in forest area, both maps at the beginning and end of the studied period were crossed with each other. The most important factors in the forest degradation trend are the natural and human factors .In this research, map of slope, aspect, elevation classes as natural factors affecting changes and distance from residential areas, roads, distance from the edge of the forest and forest fragmentation index as human factors were considered in the event of changes. In this direction, map of above factors using Arcview and Idrisi software was prepared in GIS environment and was used to analyze. For preparing maps of classes of slope, aspect, elevation, digital elevation model of the study area should be prepared. Modeling Deforestation Using Logistic Regression, GIS and RS … Discussion and Results Accuracy assessment results of classified maps are presented in the related table. With consideration to high amounts of 83% of overall accuracy, these maps can be used for preparing degradation map. After processing the satellite images, amount map and spatial distribution of forest areas in study area was prepared in years of 1976 and 2007 with use of MSS and TM satellite images. With overlay the classification results of two periods, occurred changes map was obtained. From this map, we can extract amount of degraded forest and location of these changes. Results obtained of comparison of two maps related to beginning and end of the time period (1976 and 1388) shows that during this period, 19294 hectare of forest regions area has been decreased. In logistic regression, chi-square statistic (-2Log Likelihood) or (-2LL) is widely used. When a model has a poor fit, having large amount and when a model has a good match, its value is small. In this study, chi-square value was 117.309. Coefficients of the variables in the regression equation are very important and logit equation coefficients list. 1 equation shows statistical model of degradation probability prediction obtained of logistic modeling with seven variables: slope, aspect, elevation, distance from roads and population centers, distance from the edge of the forest and forest segmentation index. Pseudo R2 for the model is 0.1608 and the ROC regression coefficient amount was equal to the amount of 0.7678. Based on this equation, the spatial distribution map of the study area forests was obtained. (1) Forest degradation probability = -4.2303+0.007207(aspect)- 0.020488(distance from villages) - 0.001495(elevation from sea level) – 0.00116 (slope) -0.001908 (distance from road) – 0.087687 (distance from the forest edge) + 0.14544 (forest fragmentation pattern) Conclusion This study has been taken place with objective of estimating the spatial distribution of Zagros forests and in order to detect effective factors on forest degradation. In this study, the effect of seven factors, distance from roads and residential areas, forest fragmentation index, aspect, elevation levels, slope and distance from forest and non-forest edge on forest degradation rate was studied In this study, to investigate changes in forest, MSS sensor related to year of 1976 and TM sensor data related to year 2007 were processed and classified. The Studied images were classified in to two classes of forest and non-forest and in order to study the degradation factors, map of forest degradation with spatial variables of physiographic and human were entered into the model. For modeling and estimating the spatial distribution of studied forests degradation, of logistic regression statistical method was used. Output of regression logistic with Pseudo R2 equal to 0.1608 and ROC of 0.76 represents a relative agreement with the actual degradation and ability to fit the model to estimate changes in forest area. Also, with consideration to negative coefficients related to distance from residential areas and roads can say with decreasing the distance then these factors, urban expansion and man-made regions development, road construction and increase in population plays role in forest degradation of the study area. Keywords: Deforestation modeling, Remote sensing, Logistic regression, Zagros forests, Ilam. References 1. Amini M.R, Shataee S, Moaieri M.H, Ghazanfari H (2009). Deforestation modeling and investigation on related physiographic and human factors using satellite images and GIS (Case study: Armerdeh forests of Baneh), Iranian Journal of Forest and Poplar Research. 16 (3). 2. Bagheri R, Shataee S (2010). Modeling loss of forest extent using the logistic regression, Case Study: Ghehal Ghay watershed of the Golestan province, Iran Journal of Forest, Iran forestry society, second year, 2 (3). 3. Braimoh A, Vlek P.L.G (2003). Modeling land use change in Northern Ghana, Conference, technological and institutional innovations for sustainable rural development, Gottingen, Germany. 21. 4. Clark W.A, Hosking P.L (1986). Statistical Methods for Geographers (Chapter 13), New York: John Wiley & Sons. 5. Eastman J. R (2002). Idrisi for windows user’s guide ver.32, Clark labs for cartography technology and geographic analysis, (Clark University). 6. Giriraj A, Ullah M.I, Murthy M.R, Beierkuhnlein C (2008). Modelling Spatial and Temporal Forest Cover Change Patterns (1973-2020). A Case Study from South Western Ghats (India). Sensors, 8. 7. Gomez-Mendoza L, Vega-Pen A.E, Ramirez M.I, Palacio-Prieto, J.L, Galicia L (2006). Projecting land-use change processes in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico. Applied Geography, 26. 8. Modeling Deforestation Using Logistic Regression, GIS and RS … Gruenberg W.D, Curtin P, Shaw W (2000). Deforestation Risk for the Maya Biosphere Reserve, Guatemala. School of Renewable Natural Resources, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA. 9. Jat M.K, Khare P.K, Khare D (2008). Monitoring and modelling of urban sprawl using remote sensing and GIS techniques. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 10. 10. Mas J.F, Puig H, Palacio J.L, Sosa-Lopel A (2004). Modeling Deforestation using GIS and Artificial Neural Networks. Environmental Modeling & Software, 19. 11. Matheron G (1970). La the´orie des variables ge´ne´ralise´es et ses applications. Les Cahiers du Centre de Morphologie Mathe´matiques de Fontainebleau, 1 (2). 12. Matthew L, Robert J, Smith R.J, Nigel L.W (2004). Mapping and predicting deforestation patterns in the lowlands of Sumatra. Biodiversity and Conservation, 13. 13. Mertens B, Lambin E. F (1999). Modelling land cover dynamics: integration of fine-scale land cover data with landscape attributes. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 1. 14. Mesghari S (2002). Investigating Changes in forest areas using GIS and remote sensing, Tehran: Researcgh Project, Technical College, Khajeh Nasir Toosi University. 15. Miriam S.W, Taylor V.S (2010). Modeling social and land-use/land-cover change data to assess drivers of smallholder deforestation in Belize. Applied Geography 30. 16. 16. Njarluo S (2005). Investigating Changes in forest area using aerial photographs, topographic maps and IRS and ETM+ images, M.Sc thesis of Forestry,Gorgan University of Agriculture and natural resources. 17. Pierre Bavqa M (2004). Investigating Changes of forest extent in relationship with topographic factors and man-made areas, Case Study: Eastern Forests of the Gilan province, M.Sc thesis of forestry, Tehran University. 18. Pontius R.G, Schneider L (2001). Land-use change model validation by a ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 85(1-3). 19. Rafieian O, Darvishsefat A.A, Namiranian M (2006). Determining changes extent of the Iran northern forests between the years of 1993 to 2001 Using ETM+ Images, Journal of Agriculture and Natural resources sciences and technology, 10 (3). 20. Ranjbar A (2002). Investigating and estimating forests degradation trend using GIS and remote sensing data, M.Sc thesis of remote sensing, Khajeh Nasir Toosi University. 21. Scheer L, Sitko R (2007). Assessment of some forest characteristics employing ikonos satellite data. Journal of Forest Science, 53. 22. Shataee S, Hosseinali Zadeh M, Ayobi S (2007). Investigating capability of ETM+ spectral data in estimating the amount of organic matter in the surface soil, Rangeland Journal, first year, 1. چکیده این تحقیق با هدف پیشبینی پراکنش مکانی تخریب جنگلهای شمال استان ایلام و به منظور ردیابی عوامل مؤثر بر تخریب جنگل صورت گرفت. در این بررسی تأثیر هفت فاکتور فاصله از جاده و مناطق مسکونی، شاخص قطعهبندی جنگل، جهت جغرافیایی، ارتفاع از سطح دریا و شیب و همچنین فاصله از مرز جنگل و غیرجنگل بر روی تخریب جنگل، مورد مطالعه قرار گرفت. در این مطالعه، برای بررسی تغییرات جنگل، دادههای سنجنده MSS مربوط به سال 1355 و سنجنده TM مربوط به سال 1386 مورد پردازش و طبقهبندی قرار گرفتند. تصاویر مورد بررسی به دو کلاسه جنگل و غیرجنگل طبقهبندی شدند و به منظور بررسی عوامل تخریب، نقشهی تخریب جنگل با متغیّرهای مکانی فیزیوگرافی و انسانی وارد مدل شد. برای مدلسازی و برآورد پراکنش مکانی تخریب جنگلهای منطقهی مورد مطالعه از روش آماری رگرسیون لجستیک استفاده شد. نتایج نشان میدهد که در طول 31 سال حدود 19294 هکتار از سطح جنگلهای منطقه کاهش یافته است. با توجه به نتایج مدلسازی مشخص شد که در قطعات جنگلی گسسته و در مناطق نزدیک به مرز جنگل و غیرجنگل تخریب بیشتری صورت گرفته است. همچنین متغیّرهای شیب، فاصله از مراکز جمعیّتی و جاده با مقدار تخریب رابطهی عکس دارند و با افزایش ارتفاع از سطح دریا در این منطقه مقدار تخریب کاهش مییابد. در نهایت، یک مدل مکانی ساده که توانایی پیشبینی پراکنش مکانی تخریب جنگل را با استفاده از رگرسیون لجستیک دارد، ارائه شد. کلیدواژهها: مدلسازی تخریب، سنجش از دور، رگرسیون لجستیک، GIS، جنگلهای شمال ایلام.

https://gdij.usb.ac.ir/article_118_bec050d45b8472d0a847b4b1afe677be.pdf

دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان مجله جغرافیا و توسعه 1735-0735 10 29 2012 12 21 Geography and Development 10nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013 Received : 29/4/2011 Accepted : 17/7/2012 PP: 14 - 16 Threshold of Acanthus Harvesting to Sediment Produce Dr. Iraj Jabbari Associate Professor of Geomorphology University of Kermanshah Razi Behrooz Borna M.Sc of Geomorphology University of Kermanshah Razi آستانه¬ی برداشت کنگر برای تولید رسوب دکتر ایرج جباری ، بهروز برنا 43 54 119 10.22111/gdij.2013.119 FA Journal Article 2013 03 02 Introduction Harvesting of self-growing plants, like acanthus; from the down slopes of mountainous regions often causes disturbances to the appearance of the slopes if it is mowed intensively. These soil disturbances often occur with spring showers that accelerate soil erosion. On the other hand, the harvesting is inevitable because of acanthus clinical and sustenance uses and earning a livelihood for many local people who make a living with such crop in the harvesting seasons. So, as the spring season starts, the harvest of self growing plants becomes a usual phenomenon on the slopes in lower altitudes. The harvest of rooting plants as acanthus is in a way that makes pits on the ground and this may be agent of erosion when spring rain falls; specially, precipitation contact with plant germination in Iran. So, in this study, it has been tried to elucidate if the harvesting of acanthus makes erosion at every situation or reaching to erosion threshold needs to increase number of the harvesting in area unit as well as other location with more gradient and other characteristics. Research Methodology In this survey has been taken into consideration the sediment producing in 16 plots with and without acanthus in the Viece Mountain, near Kermanshah city. Whereas, gradients and orientation are factors that play roles on erosion, in this research too, others aims purpose to study roles of acanthus harvesting on the different gradients and orientations on erosion acceleration. In this reason, these plots established on the four different slopes and two different aspects. The amount of sediment has been measured from plots in 9 time precipitation when it falls on late winter and early spring in 2007. Factor analyze and two ways ANOVA were the techniques that used for data analyzing. Discussion and Results A Max. shower including 46.8 mm produced 5.8 L. runoff and 0.69 g/m2 sediment on a slope with 40% gradient and a Min. rainfall with 1.4 mm precipitation set in motion only 0.175L runoff and 0.00153 g/m2 sediment from control plots on 15% slope. Threshold of Acanthus Harvesting to Sediment Produce Two ways ANOVAon obtained data shows that there is a significant difference between rainfall, slopes, aspects and erosion, that is, erosion have been deference on variety of showers, slopes and aspects. So, these results show that data have correctly been collected. Using Factor Analysis method show that despite of a significant difference in the sediment producing on the different rainfall, gradient and precipitation times, there aren’t any significant difference of sediment producing between plots with and without acanthus plants(F1,71=0.944, P>0.05). The statistical analysis continued and limited to only days when harvesting occur. It illustrated that erosion don’t occur when acanthus harvesting become 2 - 4 per m2 as Kermanshah region, but erosion may be get a significant level on regions where more harvesting acanthus occur. Conclusion This study is carried out at a region where slopes were not acute and the number of acanthus at area unit were less, whereas, there are a lot of regions at Kermanshah province and even other neighbor provinces where slopes are more acute and acanthus grow up more per unit area . So, harvesting from these regions may increase probability of erosion occurrence as the results of this study show that the amount of significant level goes up when the study is limited to only harvesting times. Keywords: Acanthus, Sediment yield, Erosion, Kermanshah. References 1. Ahmadian S.H., Safaie M. and Jafari B (2005). Comparison soil erosion at dry farm, abounded dry farms, pasture and forest areas of Kasilan catchment – Mazadaran, Proceedings of 3rd Erosion and Sediment National Conference, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Center. 2. Ateraf H., Telveri A (2005). The study of vegetation cover and cattle grazing management on soil erosion at losses pasture in Meraveh-Tepeh, Proceedings of 3rd Erosion and Sediment National Conference, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Center. 3. Ayed, G. M, Adam, M. A (2010). The impact of vegetative cover type on runoff and soil erosion under different land uses, Catena, 81. 4. Gaskin,S and Rtta, G (2001). The role of cryptogams in runoff and erosion control on Bariland in the Nepal hill of the southern Himalaya ; Earth Surface Processes and Landforms; Vol 26. 5. Ghodoosi J., Tavekoli M., Khelkhali S. A., Soltani M. J (2006). Assessing effect of rangeland exclusion on control and reduction of soil erosion rate and sediment yield, Pajouhesh & Sazandegi , No 73. 6. Isabirye M. ,Ruysschaert G., Van linden L., Poesen J. ,Magunda M.K. , Deckers J (2006). Soil losses due to cassava and sweet potato harvesting:A case study from low input traditional agriculture, Soil & Tillage Research, 92. 7. Jabbari I (2006). Statistical Methods in Environmental and Geographical sciences, Publication of Razi University, 2nd Edition. 8. Kosmos, C, Gdanalatos, N. and Gerontidis, G (2000). Effect of land parameters on vegetation performance and degree of erosion under Mediterranean condition; Catena; Vol. 40. 9. Lo´pez-Berm´udez F., Romero-D´ıaz A, Mart´ınez-Fernandez J. and Mart´ınez-Fernandez J, (1998). Vegetation and soil erosion under a semi-arid Mediterranean climate: a case study from Murcia (spain) , Geomorphology, Vol 24. 10. Nunes , A. N., A.C. D, Almeida , C.A, Coelho (2011). Impacts of land use and cover type on runoff and soil erosion in a marginal area of Portugal, Applied Geography, 31. 11. Okhovet, M. H (2001). We come to Know Acanthus well, Damdar, 92. 12. Pour Nesrollah M.R., Alidoust M (2005). The study on provender plantation effect on decrease of runoff and soil conservation in country of Roodser, Proceedings of 3rd Erosion and Sediment National Conference, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Center. 13. Rahmati, Arabkhedri M., Ardekani J, Khlkhali A (2004). The effect of grazing rate and slope on runoff and soil loss, Pajouhesh & Sazandegi. 14. Refahi H (1998).Water erosion and conservation, Tehran university publication, Second edition. 15. Ruysschaert G., Poesen J. , Notebaert B., Verstraeten G., Govers G (2008). Spatial and long-term variability of soil loss due to crop harvesting and the importance relative to water erosion: A case study from Belgium, Ecosystems and Environment, 126. 16. Ruysschaert G., Poesen J., Verstraeten G., Govers G (2004). Soil loss due to crop harvesting: significance and determining factors. Prog. Phys.Geogr. 28 (4). Ruysschaert G., Poesen J. , Verstraeten G., Govers G (2006). Soil losses due to mechanized potato harvesting, Soil & Tillage Research , 86. 18. Sadeghi H. R., Raesian R. and Razevi S. L (2005). The comparison of runoff and sediment producing on abounded plantation and poor pastures, Proceedings of 3rd Erosion and Sediment National Conference, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Center. 19. Sokooti, R., Ghaemian N., Jeferi A. and Ahmedi A(2005). The study of postural lands changing to dry farm on erosion and sediment producing, Proceedings of 3rd Erosion and Sediment National Conference, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Center. 20. Stot,T. , Leeks G., Marks, S. and Sawyer, A (2001). Environmentally sensitive plot-scale timber harvesting: impacts on suspended sediment, bed load and bank erosion dynamics, Journal of Environmental Management. 21. Tavekoli M., Mohemedi y., Piri A (2005). The effect of pasturing plans on prevention of soil erosion in Eilam province. Proceedings of 3rd Erosion and Sediment National Conference, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Center. 22. Zergeri, A., Medical plants (1999). Tehran university publication, 5th edition, 3rd Volume. چکیده برداشت گیاهان خودرو، مانند کنگر، در اغلب دامنههای پاییندست نواحی کوهستانی باعث ایجاد گوالهای کوچکی میگردد که در مواقع برداشت زیاد، ظاهر آشفتهای را به دامنهها میبخشد. این آشفتگی خاک اغلب با بارشهای سنگین بهاری همراه میشود که فرسایش خاک را تشدید میکند. از سوی دیگر، نیاز به برداشت این گیاهان به دلایل طبی، غذایی و همچنین امرار معاش تعداد زیادی از مردم در فصول برداشت، غیرقابل اجتناب است. ولی میتوان با شناخت آستانههای فرسایشی میزان و شیوهی برداشت را مدیریت نمود. از این رو، در این پژوهش سعی شد با ساخت 16 کرت، در 4 شیب و 2 جهت مختلف، در دامنهی کوه ویس در نزدیک کرمانشاه و مقایسهی رسوب حاصل از کرتهای دارای کنگر و بدون کنگر، مشخص شود که آیا اصلاً برداشت کنگر از دامنهها میتواند عاملی برای تشدید فرسایش باشد و اگر چنین است این تأثیر در جهتها و شیبهای مختلف تا چه اندازه میتواند شستشوی دامنهها را رونق بخشد. بنابراین، مقدار رسوب حاصل از 9 رویداد بارش در اواخر زمستان 1384 و اوایل بهار 1385 از کرتهای آزمایشی اندازهگیری شد. آنالیز فاکتور این دادهها نشان داد که علیرغم معنیدار بودن تولید رسوب در بارشها، در شیبها و جهتهای مختلف، رسوب تولید شدهی ناشی از برداشت کنگر تفاوت معنیداری را ایجاد نمیکند. ادامهی تجزیه و تحلیل آماری و محدود نمودن آن به شرایط تنها روزهای برداشت کنگر نشان داد که برداشت بین دو تا 4 کنگر از هر مترمربع در این منطقه باعث افزایش معنیدار فرسایش نمیگردد محلهایی که برداشت در واحد سطح بیشتر صورت گیرد، تولید رسوب نیز ممکن است به سطح معنیدار برسد. کلیدواژهها: کنگر، فرسایش خاک، بار رسوب، کرمانشاه.

https://gdij.usb.ac.ir/article_119_6fd470e7b032aa26b4bd2bbf8b3b679c.pdf

دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان مجله جغرافیا و توسعه 1735-0735 10 29 2012 12 21 The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Total Ozone Variations in Isfahan Dr. Abbasali Arvin (Spanani) Assistant Professor of Climatology University of Payame Noor تحلیل همدید امواج سرماهای فراگیر ایران مورد: موج سرمای دی و بهمن 1383 استان چهارمحال و بختیاری دکتر صادق کریمی ، دکتر حسین نگارش ، دکتر تقی طاوسی ، دکتر بهلول علیجانی 55 76 122 10.22111/gdij.2013.122 FA Journal Article 2013 03 02 Introduction The ozone layer as a protective shield life on biosphere has very oscillations from view point of quantity and volume. The ozone gases in both troposphere and stratosphere layers have been affecting on human life by two ways. The ozone in stratospheric that its name is surface ozone is an extremely poisonous gases and has destructive affect on lung and plant tissue. The surface ozone has been measured in measurement pollutant stations as one of seven pollutant gases. The ozone gas in stratospheric layer unlike the surface ozone is very necessary for human and other organism lives. The stratospheric ozone is measured in meteorological stations by name of total ozone (TO). Studies show that amount of ozone in stratospheric layer has been reduced. Variations in ozone layer were effected of changing in solar radiation, volcano eruption cosmic dust, meteoric stones and etc. that those get name as natural parameter of ozone changes. Effect of natural parameter concentration on stratospheric ozone lead to fix ozone content in long term (spanani 2004). The amount of ozone in stratospheric layer particularly in the lower stratospheric has considerable oscillations (increase/decrease) under the affection of atmospheric activities . For example V. C. Roldugin (2000) showed that passing the wave crest in the pressure field ceases the convergence of ozone poor air under the tropopause and divergence of ozone rich air above the tropopause and decreases the ozone content. The passing of a wave through simulate the opposite process and increase the ozone content T. Narayana Rao at all (2003) opining that the climatology of ozone clearly shows a significant seasonal cycle with the ozone maxima changing with height. The monthly variability of ozone as well as its seasonal maximum is found near the tropopause. Variation in tropopause height is due mainly to the passage of tropospheric weather systems and is responsible for the large monthly variability of ozone near the tropopause. In the lower stratosphere, inter annual variations are at a maximum in winter and spring, and are the result of variations in wave driven stratospheric circulation, which peaks in winter. Regarding this matter that total ozone have been affected from atmospheric parameter in lower stratosphere or upper troposphere, we decide to study the role of pattern circulation on ozone variations in Isfahan. Research Methodology In this research the environmental to circulation method has been used for synoptic patterns analysis. The mean daily of total ozone (TO) data related to Isfahan ozone survey center in the time period of 2005-2009 were used. From the total 1975 days, 174 days was missing value therefore the daily data of 1801 days (TO) have been used in analysis. The days that (TO) were under 250/above 310Du considered as min/max amount of ozone. The days that (TO) also was around the mean (284 Du) and had highest frequency (274 Du) had been used. Then mean daily of geo-potential height for 100, 300 and 500mb levels for distance of 0 to 80° east and 10° to 70° North was taken from the NCEP/NCAR climatic data center. The 100 and 300mb levels were selected for finding the trough or ridge affect and the 500mb to find the low height (low pressure) or high height (high pressure) have been selected to find atmospheric stability or instability affecting on ozone variation. Correlation methods and multiple liner regression have been used for relation analysis between TO maps and synoptic pattern maps. For this aim, mean daily data of total ozone for distance of geographical 10°*10° degree had been got from the total ozone spectrometer mapping center (NASSA/GSFC). Then the total ozone isolate maps were drawn for days that the total ozone is max, min or high frequency. Then by the use of correlation relation, the total daily amount of ozone and geo potential were analyzed. Discussion and Results The ozone variability depends on the atmospheric activity. Thus it is so variable in winter due to atmospheric instability, high contents in spring due to universal increasing, low variability caused by atmospheric stability in summer and low content cased by the global decrease of ozone in autumn. We review two periods (one of them related to minimum and another to maximum of total ozone (TO) content) of circulation patterns from the 21 periods. The maps of 8 to 10 December 2005 were analyzed as the minimum ozone indicates a stable and calm atmosphere on Iran. On December eighth, a ridge is entering in to Iran at elevation 100 & 300 mb, and includes the negative vortices and anticyclone. In this day the amount of ozone is 236 Du. At December ninth, the ridge pattern is at 100 and 300mb elevation and anticyclone condition , at 500mb elevation is placed on Iran completely and the content of total ozone has decreased to 222Du. Thus in time that ridge axes is at 100 and 300mb elevation and dynamic anticyclone at elevation 500mb is placed on Isfahan completely, the ozone poor air is transferred to Isfahan and the total ozone is decreased to the lowest amount. The maps of 30 March to 1 April 2009 are analyzed as the maximum pattern of TO. An instability atmospheric has overcome on Isfahan in this period. The trough pattern in 100mb and a completely cyclone typical in 500mb that deepens to 300mb level was on Iran that has caused the increase of TO to 349Du. The trough axes in 100mb level and very deep cyclone in 500mb to 300mb level has been set in center of Iran that the TO has increased to 371Du in day 31 March. Amount of 7.4 millimeter rainfall has been recorded in Isfahan meteorological station on 31March. Thus the relation between the daily maps of TO with the pattern of synoptic maps were analyzed through correlation relations. The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and … The analyses show that at he three levels of 100,300 and 500 mb , there are a significant inverse relation between TO and geo-potential height in 0.01 sig level. The most important effective variable in maximum occurrence time is the changes of 100mb level height and in mode occurrence and minimum amount of ozone is the changes of 300 mb level height . Relationship between geo-potential variation and TO content in upper level of troposphere (100 and 300mb) is stronger because density of ozone is higher under the tropopouse. Thus with increase/decrease of geo-potential height (high/low pressure conditions), the TO increase/ decrease simultaneously. Mass effect of three level balance on TO variability is surveyed by linear multiple regression method and show that geo-potential height affect on TO by correlation coefficient of R=0.994, R=0.885 and R=0.897 in order to mod, maximum and minimum of TO occurrences. Thus 89.1%, 80.5% and 78.4% of TO variations is explained by variability of geo-potential height in order mod, maximum and minimum of TO occurrences. Density of ozone iso-path in around of low pressure center in 500mb level show that the TO have been increased with the decrease of atmospheric pressure. Conclusion Our research showed that a part of TO variation in Isfahan correlated with geo-potential height variations in troposphere layer. The occurrence of content min/max of TO has been adapted with ridge/trough pattern in 100 and 300mb levels and dynamic anticyclone/dynamic cyclone in 500mb level. The lowest/highest TO content occurred in time that ridge/trough axes taken place on Iran and Isfahan. TO oscillation is low in warm season and synoptic parameter affect on its variation is very low. Thus atmospheric instability ceased variety and oscillation of TO in cold season but atmospheric stability ceased to fix content of TO in warm season. There is a significant reverse correlation between geo-potential height and content of TO that this relation is stronger in upper level of troposphere. Keywords: Isfahan, Total ozone (TO), Circulation patterns, Stratosphere, Multi variable linear regression. Refrences 1. Spanani, Abbasali (2004). Ozone and its Role in the life of earth, Geographical Space Magazine, No.11. 2. Atayee, Hoshmand (2008). Identification and Analysis of Circular Patterns of ,Middle atmosphere in Heavy precipitation Years of Iran, No.90. 3. Alijani, Bohlool (2006). Synoptic climatology, Samt Publication, Tehran. 4. Mahamed, Ahmad (1998), (1999). Ozone Layer (Shield of Life), Iran Research Group. 5. Masoodian. A (2005). Thirty years ridge of circular patterns of Iran middle atmosphere, Geography and Regional Development Magazine, No.7. 6. Alijani. B (2006). Synoptic Climatology, Samt publication, Tehran. Ataei. H (2008). 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García (2010). Diurnal variability of total ozone column over Madrid (Spain), Atmospheric Environment. 19. M. Martin, T. Toroshelidze, W. E. Alves, M. G. S Mello, A. A. Guser, G. I. Pugacheva (1999). Solar cycle and global long team variations of stratospheric ozone, Adv Space Res. 20. Matthew R. Bassford, Chris A. McLinden, Kimberly Strong (2001). Zenith-sky observations of stratospheric gases: the sensitivity of air mass factors to geophysical parameters and the influence of troposphere clouds, Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy & Radiative Transfer 68. Mohamed. A (1998). Ozone Layer (Shield of Life) Iran Research Grop. Tehran. Masoodian. A (2006). Synoptic Climatology and its Application in Environmental Studies, Brant Yarnal, Isfahan University. Masoodian. A. Gholizade. M. Mohamadi. B (2008). Cold Winds of Iran (Case Study: Cold Winds of Bahman 1982 Sanandaj) Geographical Research, No. 90. 24. Nasiri. B. Ghaemi. H (1999). Synoptic and Dynamic Patterns Analysis of Karkhe and Dez Floods, Geographical Research, No. 54 & 55. 25. The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and … N. Semane, V. H. Peuch, L. El Amraoui, H. Bencherif, S. Massart, D. Cariolle, Piotr V. Nevodovskiy, Alexsandr V. Morozhenko (2009). Studies of stratospheric ozone layer from near-earth orbit utilizing ultraviolet Polari meter, Acta Astronautica 64. 26. Renata De winter-Sorkina (2001). Impact of ozone layer depletion I: ozone depletion climatology, Atmospheric Environmen. 27. S. Hassanzadeha, F. Hosseinibalama, M. Omidvari (2008). Statistical methods and regression analysis of stratospheric ozone and meteorological variables in Isfahan, Physica A 387. 28. Sophie Godin-Beekmann (2010). Spatial observation of the ozone layer Observation spatial de la couched ozone, C. R. Geosciences 342. 29. Spanani. A (2004). Ozone and its Roll on Earth Life, Geographical Space, No.11. 30. T. Narayana Rao, J. Arvelius, S. Kirkwood, P. von der Gathen (2004). Climatology of ozone in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over the European ArcticAdvances in Space Research 34. 31. V. C. Roldugin, G. N. Nikulin and K. Henriksen (2000). Wave-Like Ozone Movements, Phys. Chem. Earth, vol. 25, No. 5-6. 32. W. J Collins, D. S. Stevenson, C. E. Johmson, R. G. Derwent (2000). The European regional ozone distribution and its links with the global scale for the years 1992 and 2015, Atmospheric Environment. 33. Xihong Wang and Diane V. Michelangeli (2006). A Review of Polar S Stratospheric Cloud Formation China Particulogy, Vol.4, No. 6. چکیده در اقلیمشناسی همدید با تکیه بر اصل پذیرفته شده‌ی تبیین و تحلیل تغییرات شرایط محیطی سطح زمین از روی تغییرات الگوهای فشار (رویکرد محیطی به گردشی)، میتوان بیشتر پدیدههای اقلیمی سطح زمین را تبیین، تحلیل و پیشبینی نمود. از مهمترین پدیدههای اقلیمی میتوان به موجهای سرمایی شدید اشاره نمود. سرمای شدید و نادر دی و بهمن سال 1383 شمسی که بخشهای وسیعی از کشور ایران را فرا گرفت، از آن جمله است. به منظور تبیین و تحلیل همدید این موج فراگیر سرما در ایران، دمای کمینه‌ی ایستگاههای محدوده‌ی استان چهارمحال و بختیاری، انتخاب شد و سپس از دادههای فشار تراز دریا و ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل تراز میانی جو جهت تبیین این رویداد استفاده گردید. نتایج این پژوهش نشان میدهد که الگوی حاکم بر این موج سرمای شدید، الگوی پرفشار سیبری بوده است. در این مدت، پرفشار سیبری با هجوم به طرف عرضهای پایین، هفت موج سرمایی شدید و نادر را به منطقهی مورد مطالعه تحمیل نموده است. همزمان با نفوذ و گسترش زبانه‌ی پرفشار سیبری به منطقه، در ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل تراز میانی جو، فرازهایی تا ارتفاع 5800 متر تشکیل شد که ریزش هوای بسیار سرد به منطقه را در امتداد شرقی این فرازها، توجیه میکند. از طرفی مرکز پرفشار سیبری همزمان با گسترش نفوذ خود بر عرضهای جنوبی، تا حدود 50 درجه طول شرقی (یعنی دقیقاً در امتداد شمال جغرافیایی ایران) جابجایی داشته است. در اوج این وضعیت که مقارن با 29-25 ژانویه 2005 بوده، ششمین ریزدوره موج سرمایی (با متوسط دمایی 7/16- درجه سانتیگراد) در منطقهی مورد مطالعه شکل گرفته است.

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دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان مجله جغرافیا و توسعه 1735-0735 10 29 2012 12 21 Analysis of Rainfall and Discharge Trend in Kashafrood Watershed Dr. Mehdi Vafakhah Assistant Professor of Watershed Management University of Tarbiat Modares Mohammad Bakhshi Tiragani M.Sc Student of Watershed Mangement University of Tarbiat Modares Majid Khazaei M.Sc Student of Watershed Mangement University of Tarbiat Modares تحلیل روند بارندگی و دبی در حوزه¬ی آبخیز کشف¬رود دکتر مهدی وفاخواه ، محمد بخشی¬تیرگانی ، مجید خزائی 77 90 123 10.22111/gdij.2013.123 FA Journal Article 2013 03 02 Introduction The human activates and change of the land use has made changes in the peak and base flow discharge of the rivers. Also increasing the global average temperature has made anomalies in meteorological and hydrological variables such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. For better management of water resources, the data of river flow rate changes and their creating elements of such changes are required. Therefore the review of these anomalies as the trend determination in time series of hydrological and meteorological variables in different areas and their relation with each other can have an especial importance. In recent years, a great deal of studies have been made for the possible impacts of climatic changes on the river flow, which most of them have studied the changes of long term climatic averages and hydrological characteristics. Generally these changes have been studied in two cases. Firstly, the analysis of registered and available statistics of precipitation and river flow and the other is the impacts of different scenarios of climatic changes on the river flow by hydrological models. The most common method for analysis of hydrometeological time series is the review of the existence or non- existence of trend in them by using statistical tests. Generally the existence of trend in these series may be due to gradual natural changes and climatic changes or the impacts of human activities. Various methods have been presented up to now for analysis of time series trend which are dividable in to two groups of parametric and non parametric. Non-parametric methods have a more extensive use in comparing with parametric methods. The present research was performed to the aim of detecting the existence and amount of discharge trend and precipitation at Kashafrood watershed in 13 meteorology and hydrometric stations with statistical length of 1972-2006 at the north east part of Iran which is c nsidered as the areas with low precipitation in Iran. Material and Methods Characteristics of the study area Kashafrood watershed is located at geographical longitude of 58° 20′ up to 60° 8′N and geographical latitude of 35° 40′ up to 36° 3′) and from the north is limited to Hezar Masjed heights and from south is limited to Binalood heights . The basin area is about 16500 km2 which dedicated itself a vast part of Khorasan province. Around 500 km2 of the watershed area are the plain area and the remaining is the heights.. The characteristics of the study watershed are low rainfall and high evapotranspiration. The climate of the study watershed is semidry-cold. The characteristics of the study watershed are low rainfall and high evapotranspiration. Research Methodology 13 meteorological and hydrometric stations (Table 1) have been analyzed in this research. Table 1 : The Characteristics of the selected stations in Kashafrood basin Period of series Elevation(m) Latitude (N) Longitude (E) River Station name Code of station 1972-2006 1200 59° 61′ 36° 48′ Radekan Imamzadeh 64-003 1972-2006 1300 59° 12′ 36° 28′ Golmakan Golmakan 64-011 1977-2006 1350 59° 11′ 36° 24′ Kaho Dolatabad 64-013 1974-2006 1340 59° 22′ 36° 42′ Ardak Bande Saroj 64-015 1977-2006 1950 59° 09′ 36° 18′ Zoshk Zoshk 64-017 1974-2006 1750 59° 13′ 36° 20′ Zoshk Shandiz 64-019 1967-1989 950 59° 40′ 36° 36′ Kardeh Anderekh 64-021 1985-2006 1200 59° 26′ 36° 20′ Jaghargh Zirbande Golestan 64-027 1967-1987 1240 59° 31′ 36° 10′ Torogh Kortian 64-029 1972-2006 840 59° 51′ 36° 14′ Kashafrood Olang Asadi 64-033 1967-2006 620 60° 51′ 36° 00′ Kashafrood Aghdarband 64-037 1987-2006 1650 58° 28′ 36° 50′ Chekneh Chekneholya 64-043 1986-2006 990 60° 14′ 35° 56′ Kalateh Monar Kalateh Monar 64-962 For the purpose of performing the present research, firstly the data of precipitation and seasonal and annual flow rate of each station at different years from old times to the new were sequenced and then by using rank-based nonparametric Mann–Kendall test , the trend existence in the flow rate and precipitation data of each stations were evaluated separately and the obtained results were drawn as a graph. Also, Sen Test was used for magnitude of trend. For better indication and general assessment of the area, the obtained results in GIS environment for precipitation and annual and seasonal flow rate were presented in the form of map. In the following, the relation of Mann–Kendall test and Sen Test is described. Mann-Kendall test This test that was proposed by Mann (1945) and then extended by Kendall (1975) is considered as the most frequent nonparametric methods of analysis of time series trend. Use of this method is recommended for two reasons: (1) it is applicable for various types of abnormal, incomplete and seasonal data (2) it has the highest capability for data analysis. Also this test in comparing with the other trend tests is more suitable for determining the trend of hydrologic time series. The process for calculation of this test statistics would be as the following: a) Analysis of Rainfall and Discharge Trend in Kashafrood Watershed Calculating the difference between each observes with each other and using sign function and extraction of S parameter which is obtained from relation (1) : (1) In which , n is the number of observes and وxj and xk are jth and kth series respectively. The sign function is calculated by relation (2) : (2) b) variance is calculated from the following relation: If n>10 (3) If n<10 (4) Where n is the number of observed data, m is the number of series with at least one repeating data, and ti is the data with similar value. In cases where the sample size n >10, the standard normal variable Z is computed using Eq. (5): (5) In a bilateral test, for finding the trend of data series, the assumption of zero is accepted where the following relation is used: (6) In which α is a meaningful level which is considered for the test and Z is a standad normal deviate at a meaningful level, which due to the two slope of the test, α/2has been used. In this research, Mann–Kendall test has been implemented for 95% and 99% of confidence, which Z α/2 is equal to 1.96 and 2.65 respectively. The presence of a trend is accepted if Z is statistically signiﬁcant if Z<-Zα/2 or Z>Zα/2. Positive values of Z indicate increasing trends, while negative values of Z indicate decreasing trends. In addition to identifying whether a trend exists, the magnitude of a trend was also estimated by a slope estimator β, which was extended by Hirsch et al. (1982) from that proposed by Sen (1968), deﬁned as where (5) In other words, the slope estimator β is the median over all possible combinations of pairs for the whole data set. A positive value of β indicates an ‘upward trend’ (increasing values with time), while a negative value of β indicates a ‘downward trend’. Discussion and Results There is a decreasing trend of discharge and precipitation in Dolatabad station. The decreasing trend of discharge and precipitation in Dolatabad is due to the direct relationship between discharge and precipitation. This decreasing trend cannot relate to situation of the station due to Golmakan, Zoshk and Shandiz stations located in the nearest of the station having different trend in discharge and precipitation. Thus, the precipitation shows increasing trend for all seasonal and annual series expect spring season in Golmakan station. Also, the discharge shows increasing trend in autumn and summer seasons. There are different decreasing and increasing trend of precipitation and discharge in Zoshk and Shandiz stations. It may be due to other factors such as harvest and usage of rivers water and land use. The Aghdarband station located on the main river, precipitation shows increasing trend in seasonal and annual series. The increased precipitation of this station can be signs of climate change. While discharge of this station shows decreasing trend in seasonal and annual series due to situation of the station located on main river and outlet of watershed. Also, Placing of the station on the main river and flat region and usage of water resources in agricultural and urban parts around Mashhad plain causing decreasing trend of discharge in this station. This result is consistent with Xu et al.(2010) results. The Klateh Monar, Kortian, Anderekh and Chakneholeya sub-watersheds shows increasing trend in seasonal and annual discharge. The trend of precipitation is observed different in the stations. The trend of precipitation in Klateh Monar station shows a decreasing trend in seasonal and annual data except autumn season data. Also, in Kortian station is observed increasing trend in only winter season but two stations namely Anderekh and Cheknoleya station are observed increasing and decreasing trend in seasonal and annual data. The trend of precipitation in Bande Saroj station was increasing trend in seasonal and annual data but the trend of discharge was decreasing trend except autumn season. The Imamzadeh, Olange Asadi and Zirbande Golestan stations were observed different trend in seasonal and annual precipitation and discharge data. Analysis of Rainfall and Discharge Trend in Kashafrood Watershed Conclusion This study was carried out for detection of rainfall and discharge trends in Kashafrood watershed, one of the low rainfall watersheds located in north-east of Iran, on 13 meteorological and hydrometry stations with data from 1972 to 2006. In this study, Mann – Kendall test, non-parametric test, was used for assessment of existence and nonexistence trend and also Sen Test was for magnitude of trend. The results of rainfall and discharge analysis showed that rainfall increased in the most stations in autumn as 9 stations have the increasing trend. While 10 out of 13 stations showed the decreasing trend in spring. In summer and winter, the numbers of stations with increasing and decreasing trends are almost equal. The annual trend analysis of rainfall and discharge showed that 5 stations had increasing trend and 8 other stations had decreasing trend in rainfall data. But no stations had increasing trend in discharge data. So that no trend was found for data in 2 stations and the rest had increasing trend. This is probability due to increasing harvest and usage of rivers water. The usage of rivers water increased with increasing population. Thus consulting dams and increasing agricultural land under cultivation was tried for more water control and productivity by human. Keywords: Trend, Discharge, Rainfall, Mann–Kendall test, Sen Test, Kashafrood Watershed. 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Relationship between temperature trend magnitude, elevation and mean temperature in the Tibetan Plateau from homogenized surface stations and reanalysis data. Global and Planetary Change. Analysis of Rainfall and Discharge Trend in Kashafrood Watershed Raziei, Tayeb, Daneshkar arasteh, Payman and Saghafian, Bahram (2005). Trend analysis of annual precipitation in arid and semi arid regions of central and eastern Iran, Water and Wastewater, 16 (2). Analysis of Rainfall and Discharge Trend in Kashafrood Watershed Sanjiv, Kumar, Venkatesh, Merwade, Jonghun, Kam and Kensey, Thurner (2009). Streamflow trends in Indiana: Effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. Journal of Hydrology, 374. Svensson, Cecilia, Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. and Maurer, Thomas (2005). Trend detection in river flow series: 2. Flood and low-flow index series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50 (5). Xu, Zongxue, Liu, Zhaofei, Fu, Guobin, and Yaning, Chen (2010).Trends of major hydroclimatic variables in the Tarim River basin during the past 50 years, Journal of Arid Environments, 74. Zhuoheng, Chen and Stephen, E. Grasby (2009). Impact of decadal and century-scale oscillations on hydroclimate trend analyses. Journal of Hydrology, 365. چکیده رودخانهها یکی از منابع اصلی آب مصرفی میباشند، برای مدیریت بهتر این منابع اطلاع از روند دبی آنها و عوامل ایجادکنندهی این روند ضروری میباشد. این تحقیق با هدف تحلیل روند بارندگی و دبی در حوزهی آبخیز کشفرود که یکی از حوضههای کم بارش در شمال شرق ایران است، در 13 ایستگاه هواشناسی و هیدرومتری در دورهی آماری بین سالهای 1351 تا 1385 انجام گرفت. در این تحقیق برای ارزیابی بود یا نبود روند از آزمون ناپارامتری من- کندال و برای میزان بزرگی آن از آزمون سن استفاده شد. نتایج تحلیل بارندگی و دبی نشان داد بارندگی در فصل پاییز در اکثر ایستگاهها افزایش یافته است. بهطوری که در 9 ایستگاه روند افزایشی بوده است. از طرف دیگر بارندگی در فصل بهار در 10 ایستگاه از مجموع 13 ایستگاه روند کاهشی را نشان میدهد. در فصول زمستان و تابستان تقریباً تعداد ایستگاههای دارای روند افزایشی و کاهشی برابر است. در بررسی روند دادههای سالانهی بارندگی و دبی مشاهده شد که از مجموع 13 ایستگاه مورد مطالعه در حوزهی آبخیز کشفرود، 5 ایستگاه روند افزایشی و 8 ایستگاه روند کاهشی در دادههای بارندگی نشان دادند. ولی در دادههای دبی در هیچ یک از ایستگاهها روند افزایشی مشاهده نشد. به طوری که دبی در دو ایستگاه بدون روند و در مابقی ایستگاهها دارای روند کاهشی بود. این به احتمال زیاد به علت افزایش برداشت و استفاده از آب رودخانههاست. با افزایش جمعیّت نیاز به استفاده از آب رودخانهها نیز افزایش یافته است. در نتیجه انسان با ایجاد سد و زیر کشت بردن زمینهای کشاورزی بیشتر سعی در بهرهوری و مهار بیشتر آبهای جاری نموده است.

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دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان مجله جغرافیا و توسعه 1735-0735 10 29 2012 12 21 Ancient Modeling of Hydrology Based on Comparison of δo18 Carbonate and the δo13 Crbonate Parishan Lake (Fars Province) Dariush Noorollahi M.Sc Climatology University of Shahid Beheshti Dr. Hassan Lashkari Associate Profesor of Natural Geography University of Shahid Beheshti Maria Amirzade Faculty of Earth science University of Shahid Beheshti مدلسازی دیرینه هیدرولوژی براساس مقایسه¬ی اسناد δO^18 carbonate وδC^13 carbonate دریاچه پریشان (استان فارس) داریوش نورالهی ، دکتر حسن لشکری ، ماریا امیرزاده 91 106 125 10.22111/gdij.2013.125 FA Journal Article 2013 03 02 Geography and Development 10nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013 Received : 31/1/2012 Accepted : 17/7/2012 PP: 28 - 31 Ancient Modeling of Hydrology Based on Comparison of δo18 Carbonate and the δo13 Crbonate Parishan Lake (Fars Province) Dariush Noorollahi M.Sc Climatology University of Shahid Beheshti Dr. Hassan Lashkari Associate Profesor of Natural Geography University of Shahid Beheshti Maria Amirzade Faculty of Earth science University of Shahid Beheshti Introduction stable isotopes are strong tools for environmental studies, because most of the elements are naturally more abundant at least in one isotope. Among the studies, many researchers have considered the Carbon (C13/C12), Oxygen, (O18/O16) Hydrogen (H2/H) and Nitrogen (N29/N28) which remain effects on the organic (plants and animals) and inorganic (water, soils, rocks, fossils,…) material (Griffiths, 1998, p47). In order to study the Carbon and Oxygen stable isotopes of the lake carbonates, recognizing the effective factors on the isotope's value and identifying the relationship between the isotope values is essential. In the lake environments many factors can determine the variability of the Oxygen isotopes of the lake sediments which the most important of them are including: source of materials, water temperature, residence time and the input and output amount of the lake (Benson et al, 1996, p747). In the open hydrological systems, the Oxygen isotope components of the lake water dominantly reflect the isotopic components of precipitation (rain and snow) (Leng& Marshal, 2004, p817). In addition to the effective factors on the isotopic amount of carbon and oxygen, the relationship between the carbon and Oxygen isotopes in lake systems can deliver valuable information about the history of the lake's hydrology. The relationship between the isotope values of carbon and oxygen isotopes in the closed lakes can be based on the hydrological changes, evaporation, biomass production and the Co2 concentration (Le and Ku, 1997, p72). There are big hydrological closed lakes especially in the arid regions, which both carbon and oxygen isotopic values are positively high. In these cases, it shows a close value of correlation .the magnitude of the correlations can be used to estimate the closeness of the lakes in different time periods. In the closed lakes, the covariance of carbon and oxygen isotope values generally indicate the interaction of carbon and oxygen isotopes with the atmosphere (Tanner, 2009, p210). In fact, the strong correlation between the carbon and oxygen isotope values indicates a common effective mechanism on the lake dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) (Eastwood et al, 2007, p239). In the open lakes, there is a prefencally weak correlation between the carbon and oxygen isotope values. In fact, generally, the the strong correlation between the carbon and oxyegen isotope values ocuurs in the lake that have a long residence time. The correlation values more than 0.7 indicate the lake carbonates deposited in a hydrological closed lake. Furthermore, in these cases, due to the high variability of the lake water, the oxygen isotope values in the closed lake are approximately around 0.0 %. Therefore, this covariance could be used to estimate the closeness of the lakes with the carbonates deposition (Talbot, 1990, p273). Based on the methods mentioned above, a core was taken from Parishan lake in Fars. The aim of this research is to reconstruct the hydrological condition of the lake in the past using the Carbon and Oxygen stable isotopes of the Ostracoda microfossil. Ancient Modeling of Hydrology Based on Comparison of … Method and Materials The carbon and oxygen isotope components were measured in Otava university, the Faculty of Science (Earth Sciences) (G.G. Hatch Isotope Laboratories, 130 Louis Pasteur). Totally, 36 analyses of carbon and oxygen isotope were made on 33 samples. The accuracy of measurement analyses has been reported ± 0.1 per thousand. The isotope components of samples based on the well- known scale of δ have been defined and reported as per thousand. δsample (‰) = [(Rsample - Rstandard) /(Rstandard)]×1000 Where R refers to the accumulative ratios of the O18/O17 and C13/C12 in the samples and shows the isotopic standard reference. In this research both of the carbon and oxygen stable isotopes are reported based on the vpdb standards. Also the below equation is suggested in order to convert this standard into the vsmow standard. VPDB-VSMOW d18Ovsmow = 1.0309d18Ovpdb + 30.92 VSMOW-VPDB d18Ovpdb = 0.97001d18Ovsmow -29.99 Discussion According to the variation of the isotope values of the carbon and oxygen elements, three below zones were defined in order to survey the environmental changes separately. Zone 1: (900 to 1800 BP) When water evaporates from surface of Parishan lake, watervapor is enriched by H and 16O, because H216O has a higher watervapor in comparing with HDO and H218O (Hoefs ,2004). So the increase of evaporation enriches the lake water and consequently the carbonate of H218O. The values are relatively low in this zone. This indicates that evaporation had not a significant effect on the H216Olake water. As a result, Parishan Lake experienced a wet condition during this time. Furthermore, the weak correlation between the carbon and oxygen stable isotope values indicates that the lake was hydrologically open and was fed by the underground water during this zone. The existence of gypsum crystal only in this zone can show a higher fed of under ground water in to the lake. Consequently, the P+G=E is the suggested hydrological equation for this zone. Zone 2: (200 to 900 BP) The carbon isotopes values in this zone are relatively higher than the previous zone. Increasing the carbon isotope values could be a result of decreasing the underground water discharge into the lake. The higher O18 suggests a drier climatic condition. In fact, the higher O18 during this zone caused by removing the O17 by evaporation. The weak correlation between the carbon and oxygen isotope values suggests an open condition of Parishan Lake in this zone. Consequently, the lake level was relatively high in this zone. However, the higher oxygen isotope values and the weaker correlation indicates that the lake level was lower than the previous period. Zone 3: (Two recent centuries) There is an abrupt and significant change in the C13 values in this zone. The carbon isotopes values exceeds 0 in this zone. The strongest correlation between the carbon and oxygen isotope values is observed in this zone. Totally, the isotopic analysis in this zone shows that 1: the increase of carbon isotopes indicates the decrease of underground water discharge considerably in this zone. 2: the strong correlation of carbon and oxygen isotope values suggests that the lake experienced a closed condition in this zone, evaporation is a common effective factor which controls the variations of both carbon and oxygen isotope values. 3: the anthropogenic effect is an additional factor that controls the significant change of the lake hydrology. 4: the P=E equation is suggested for this zone and the current hydrological condition also indicates that evaporation and precipitation are the main effective factors on the lake hydrology. Conclusion The gradual increasing of the O18 values indicates a weak dry trend during the study period. Also the investigation of the isotope carbon show that the underground water recharges variation controlled the carbon stable isotope values. The carbon isotope changes are caused by the underground water discharge variation during different time periods. The results show that the hydrological equation of the Parishan Lake has changed during the time period as this lake experienced an open condition in the past. However, at the present, as a result of the human impact, the lakes become a closed lake where the evaporation and precipitation are the main effective factor that controls the hydrology of the lake. In the final part of the study term (zone 3) the abrupt change of the O18 suggests the impacts of the human on the lake's environment. Keywords: Palaeohydrology, Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes, Parishan Lake. References 1. Aghanabati, Seyed Ali (2004). Geology of Iran, industry and mining boreua. The gology and mining organization of Iran. 2. The water management organization (2009). 3. Shahrabi. Mostafa (1994). gology of Iran( Lakes and Seas). Publication of the Glogology organization of Iran. 4. Massodian, Abolfazl (2003). Recognizing the percipitation patterns using the cluster analysis. Geography researches. No 52. 5. Ancient Modeling of Hydrology Based on Comparison of … Andrews, J. E, Riding, R., Dennis, P. E (1997). The stable isotope record of environmental and climatic signals in modern terrestrial microbial carbonates from Europe. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. 129. 6. Eastwood J.Warran, Melanie J.Leng, Neil .Robert and Basil Davis (2007). Holocene climate change in the eastern Mediterranean region; a compartion of satble isotope and pollen data from Lake GO lhisar, southwest Turkey, Journal of quaternary Science 22(4). 7. Editorial (2008). Lake system; sedimentary archives of climate change and tecnics. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 259. 8. Fan,Majie. David L. Dettman, Chunhui Song,Xiaomin Fang , Carmala N. Garzione (2007). Climatic variation in the Linxia basin, NE Tibetan Plateau,from 13.1 to 4.3 Ma: The stable isotope record. Palaeogeography,Palaeoclimatology,Palaeoecology 247. 9. Gates, David Murray (1993). Cliamte change and its biological consequences. Sunderland, Mass; Sinauer Associates 551 .6973.G259C. 10. Griffiths, H (1998). Stable Isotopes; integration of biological, ecological and geochemical processes. oxford; Bios Scientific Publishers, 551.9 G855S. 11. Hoefs, Jochen (2004). Stable isotopes Geochimistery. Berlin; Springer. 551.9H693S. 12. Jones, Matthew. Palaeoclimatic research within the Mamasani Archaeological Project. Unpublished data. 13. L.V. Benson, J.W. Burdett, M. Kashgarian, S.P. Lund,F.M. Philips, R.O. Rye (1996). Climatic and hydrological oscillations in the Ownes Lake Basin, and adjacent Sierra Nevada,California, Science 274 746-749. 14. Leng.J .Melanie, and Jim D.Marshal (2004). Palaeoclimate interpretion of stable isotope data from lake sediment archives.Quaternary Science Reviews 23. 15. Li.H.c and Ku T.L (1997). δO18 - δ C13 covariance as a palaeohydrogical indicator for closed-basin lakes. Palaeogeography,Palaeoclimatology,Palaeoecology, Volume 133, issues 1-2. 16. of the palaeohydrologocal interpretation of carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios in primiary lucustraine carbonates. chemical geology; Isotope geosciences section, volume 80, issue 4, 1. 17. Tanner, H.Lawrence (2010). Chapter 4 continental carbonates as indicators of palaoclimate. Developing in sedimentology, Volume 62. 18. Wang. R.L, S.C. Scarpitta, S.C. Zhang, M.P. Zheng (2002). Later Pleistocene/Holocene climate conditions of Qinghai^Xizhang Plateau (Tibet) based on carbon and oxygen stable isotopes of Zabuye Lake sediments. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 203. 19. Xu.Hai, Li Ai, Liangcheng Tan, Zhisheng An (2006). Stable isotopes in bulk carbonates and organic matter in recent Stable Isotopes and mineral resource investigation and palaoclimateic interpretion 20. Talbot, M.R (1990). A review sediments of Lake Qinghai and their climatic implications, Journal Chemical Geology. Volume 235. چکیده جهت مطالعهی دیرینهی هیدرولوژی دریاچه پریشان از رسوبات کف دریاچه مغزههایی به طول تقریبی m2 برداشت شد. بر روی پوسته‌ی میکروفسیلهای جدا شده از نمونههای این مغزهها آنالیز ایزوتوپ کربن و اکسیژن صورت گرفت. در اینجا از نتایج این آنالیزها جهت مدلسازی و بازسازی شرایط هیدرولوژیکی دریاچه پریشان در طیّ 1800 سال اخیر استفاده میشود. بر اساس تغییرات مشاهده شده در مقادیر و در طیّ این دوره سه زون ایزوتوپی مشخص گردید. در زون اول پایین بودن به علت بیشتر بودن تغذیه آبهای زیرزمینی و پایین بودن در نتیجه شرایط اقلیمی مرطوبتر تفسیر شده است همچنین همبستگی پایین و (14/0R2=) حاکی از شرایط هیدرولوژیکی فعالتر دریاچه بوده است. به این صورت بالانس هیدرولوژیکی مثبتتر و به دنبال آن سطح دریاچه نسبت به امروز بالاتر بوده و معادلهی هیدرولوژیکی دریاچه در این دوره به شکل E=P+G ارائه شده است. در زون دوم افزایش مقادیر در نتیجهی کاهش تخلیه آبهای زیرزمینی تفسیر شده است همچنین شواهد موجود در نشان میدهد که این دوره نسبت به دورهی قبل تا حدودی شرایط خشکتری را تجربه کرده است. افزایش همبستگی بین و (2/0(R2= در این زون بسته بودن بشتر شرایط هیدرولوژیکی دریاچه است. به این صورت به نظر میرسد که دریاچه در این دوره سطح پایینتری را تجربه کرده باشد و بالانس هیدرولوژیکی نسبت به دورهی قبل منفیتر بوده است با این حال در این دوره نیز معادلهی هیدرولوژیکی دریاچه از رابطه E=P+G تبعیت کرده است. بیشترین تغییرات مشاهده شده در مقادیر ایزوتوپی متعلق به این زون سوم است. افزایش ناگهانی و شدید مقادیر به بالای صفر به علت کاهش شدید تخلیه آبهای زیرزمینی در این دوره به دریاچه تفسیر شده است. این کاهش ورودی آبهای زیرزمینی و نیز افزایش همبستگی و (95/0R2=) حاکی از شرایط هیدرولوژیکی نزدیک به بسته کامل است. افزایش همبستگی بین مقادیر ایزوتوپیکربن و اکسیژن حاکی از یک سیستم عملگرای مشترک بر روی این مقادیر در این زون است. به احتمال زیاد قطع شدن نسبی ارتباط دریاچه با منابع زیرزمینی این اجازه را داده است که در طیّ فرایند تبخیر دریاچه در موازنه با CO2جو مقادیر بالاتری را تجربه کند. به این صورت رابطه هیدرولوژیکی ارائه شده برای این زون به شکل E=Pاست. نکتهی مهم این است که در این زون تغییرات هیدرولوژیکی دریاچه در هماهنگی با تغییرات اقلیمی در منطقه رخ نداده است به نظر میرسد که عامل اصلی کاهش آبهای زیرزمینی در این زون به علت افزایش استحصال آب از طریق چاه یا قنات باشد.

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دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان مجله جغرافیا و توسعه 1735-0735 10 29 2012 12 21 The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Total Ozone Variations in Isfahan Dr. Abbasali Arvin (Spanani) Assistant Professor of Climatology University of Payame Noor ارزیابی تفرجی به¬کمک فرآیند تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی (AHP) و سامانه‌ی اطلاعات جغرافیایی(GIS) مورد : پارک جنگلی شهید زارع، مازندران دکتر حمید جلیلوند ، امید کرمی ، آناهیتا شاه‌نظری ، مرتضی شعبانی 107 118 126 10.22111/gdij.2013.126 FA Journal Article 2013 03 02 Geography and Development 10nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013 Received : 21/9/2011 Accepted : 17/7/2012 PP : 1- 5 The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Total Ozone Variations in Isfahan Dr. Abbasali Arvin (Spanani) Assistant Professor of Climatology University of Payame Noor Introduction The ozone layer as a protective shield life on biosphere has very oscillations from view point of quantity and volume. The ozone gases in both troposphere and stratosphere layers have been affecting on human life by two ways. The ozone in stratospheric that its name is surface ozone is an extremely poisonous gases and has destructive affect on lung and plant tissue. The surface ozone has been measured in measurement pollutant stations as one of seven pollutant gases. The ozone gas in stratospheric layer unlike the surface ozone is very necessary for human and other organism lives. The stratospheric ozone is measured in meteorological stations by name of total ozone (TO). Studies show that amount of ozone in stratospheric layer has been reduced. Variations in ozone layer were effected of changing in solar radiation, volcano eruption cosmic dust, meteoric stones and etc. that those get name as natural parameter of ozone changes. Effect of natural parameter concentration on stratospheric ozone lead to fix ozone content in long term (spanani 2004). The amount of ozone in stratospheric layer particularly in the lower stratospheric has considerable oscillations (increase/decrease) under the affection of atmospheric activities . For example V. C. Roldugin (2000) showed that passing the wave crest in the pressure field ceases the convergence of ozone poor air under the tropopause and divergence of ozone rich air above the tropopause and decreases the ozone content. The passing of a wave through simulate the opposite process and increase the ozone content T. Narayana Rao at all (2003) opining that the climatology of ozone clearly shows a significant seasonal cycle with the ozone maxima changing with height. The monthly variability of ozone as well as its seasonal maximum is found near the tropopause. Variation in tropopause height is due mainly to the passage of tropospheric weather systems and is responsible for the large monthly variability of ozone near the tropopause. In the lower stratosphere, inter annual variations are at a maximum in winter and spring, and are the result of variations in wave driven stratospheric circulation, which peaks in winter. Regarding this matter that total ozone have been affected from atmospheric parameter in lower stratosphere or upper troposphere, we decide to study the role of pattern circulation on ozone variations in Isfahan. Research Methodology In this research the environmental to circulation method has been used for synoptic patterns analysis. The mean daily of total ozone (TO) data related to Isfahan ozone survey center in the time period of 2005-2009 were used. From the total 1975 days, 174 days was missing value therefore the daily data of 1801 days (TO) have been used in analysis. The days that (TO) were under 250/above 310Du considered as min/max amount of ozone. The days that (TO) also was around the mean (284 Du) and had highest frequency (274 Du) had been used. Then mean daily of geo-potential height for 100, 300 and 500mb levels for distance of 0 to 80° east and 10° to 70° North was taken from the NCEP/NCAR climatic data center. The 100 and 300mb levels were selected for finding the trough or ridge affect and the 500mb to find the low height (low pressure) or high height (high pressure) have been selected to find atmospheric stability or instability affecting on ozone variation. Correlation methods and multiple liner regression have been used for relation analysis between TO maps and synoptic pattern maps. For this aim, mean daily data of total ozone for distance of geographical 10°*10° degree had been got from the total ozone spectrometer mapping center (NASSA/GSFC). Then the total ozone isolate maps were drawn for days that the total ozone is max, min or high frequency. Then by the use of correlation relation, the total daily amount of ozone and geo potential were analyzed. Discussion and Results The ozone variability depends on the atmospheric activity. Thus it is so variable in winter due to atmospheric instability, high contents in spring due to universal increasing, low variability caused by atmospheric stability in summer and low content cased by the global decrease of ozone in autumn. We review two periods (one of them related to minimum and another to maximum of total ozone (TO) content) of circulation patterns from the 21 periods. The maps of 8 to 10 December 2005 were analyzed as the minimum ozone indicates a stable and calm atmosphere on Iran. On December eighth, a ridge is entering in to Iran at elevation 100 & 300 mb, and includes the negative vortices and anticyclone. In this day the amount of ozone is 236 Du. At December ninth, the ridge pattern is at 100 and 300mb elevation and anticyclone condition , at 500mb elevation is placed on Iran completely and the content of total ozone has decreased to 222Du. Thus in time that ridge axes is at 100 and 300mb elevation and dynamic anticyclone at elevation 500mb is placed on Isfahan completely, the ozone poor air is transferred to Isfahan and the total ozone is decreased to the lowest amount. The maps of 30 March to 1 April 2009 are analyzed as the maximum pattern of TO. An instability atmospheric has overcome on Isfahan in this period. The trough pattern in 100mb and a completely cyclone typical in 500mb that deepens to 300mb level was on Iran that has caused the increase of TO to 349Du. The trough axes in 100mb level and very deep cyclone in 500mb to 300mb level has been set in center of Iran that the TO has increased to 371Du in day 31 March. Amount of 7.4 millimeter rainfall has been recorded in Isfahan meteorological station on 31March. Thus the relation between the daily maps of TO with the pattern of synoptic maps were analyzed through correlation relations. The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and … The analyses show that at he three levels of 100,300 and 500 mb , there are a significant inverse relation between TO and geo-potential height in 0.01 sig level. The most important effective variable in maximum occurrence time is the changes of 100mb level height and in mode occurrence and minimum amount of ozone is the changes of 300 mb level height . Relationship between geo-potential variation and TO content in upper level of troposphere (100 and 300mb) is stronger because density of ozone is higher under the tropopouse. Thus with increase/decrease of geo-potential height (high/low pressure conditions), the TO increase/ decrease simultaneously. Mass effect of three level balance on TO variability is surveyed by linear multiple regression method and show that geo-potential height affect on TO by correlation coefficient of R=0.994, R=0.885 and R=0.897 in order to mod, maximum and minimum of TO occurrences. Thus 89.1%, 80.5% and 78.4% of TO variations is explained by variability of geo-potential height in order mod, maximum and minimum of TO occurrences. Density of ozone iso-path in around of low pressure center in 500mb level show that the TO have been increased with the decrease of atmospheric pressure. Conclusion Our research showed that a part of TO variation in Isfahan correlated with geo-potential height variations in troposphere layer. The occurrence of content min/max of TO has been adapted with ridge/trough pattern in 100 and 300mb levels and dynamic anticyclone/dynamic cyclone in 500mb level. The lowest/highest TO content occurred in time that ridge/trough axes taken place on Iran and Isfahan. TO oscillation is low in warm season and synoptic parameter affect on its variation is very low. Thus atmospheric instability ceased variety and oscillation of TO in cold season but atmospheric stability ceased to fix content of TO in warm season. There is a significant reverse correlation between geo-potential height and content of TO that this relation is stronger in upper level of troposphere. Keywords: Isfahan, Total ozone (TO), Circulation patterns, Stratosphere, Multi variable linear regression. Refrences 1. Spanani, Abbasali (2004). Ozone and its Role in the life of earth, Geographical Space Magazine, No.11. 2. Atayee, Hoshmand (2008). Identification and Analysis of Circular Patterns of ,Middle atmosphere in Heavy precipitation Years of Iran, No.90. 3. Alijani, Bohlool (2006). Synoptic climatology, Samt Publication, Tehran. 4. Mahamed, Ahmad (1998), (1999). Ozone Layer (Shield of Life), Iran Research Group. 5. Masoodian. A (2005). Thirty years ridge of circular patterns of Iran middle atmosphere, Geography and Regional Development Magazine, No.7. 6. Alijani. B (2006). Synoptic Climatology, Samt publication, Tehran. Ataei. H (2008). Recognition and Analysis of circulation pattern middle atmospheric Level in Rainy Region in Iran, Geographical Research, No. 90. 8. Chandramadhab Pal (2010) Variability of total ozone over India and its adjoining regions during 1997-2008, Atmospheric Environment 44. 9. E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, C. Schnadt, T. Egorova, M. Wild, A. Ohmura, V. Zubov, W. Schmutz, Th. Peter (2005). Assessment of the ozone and temperature variability during 1979–1993 with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, Advances in Space Research 35. 10. E. Rozanova, T. Egorovab, W. Schmutzb, Th. Peter (2006). Simulation of the stratospheric ozone and temperature response to the solar irradiance variability during sun rotation cycle, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 68. Ezatian. V. Bagheri. A (2009). Quality Control of Ozone Data By Use of TOMS Spectrometers Data. 4th International Conference of Climate Chang. Ezatian. V. Asadieskoei. E (2010). Application of Statistical Methods in Tropospheric ozone oscillation analysis, Iran Geo-physic Journal. Ghvidelrahimi. Y (2010). Mapping and interpretation of Climate Synoptic by Use of Grads Softward, Sahadanesh, Tehran. Jahanbakhsh. S. Karami. F (1999). Geographical Research, No. 54 & 55. 15. J. Leclair De Bellevuea, J. L. Baraya, S. Baldya, G. Ancelletb, R. Diabc, F. Ravetta (2007). Simulations of stratospheric to tropospheric transport during the tropical cyclone Marlene event, Atmospheric Environment 41. 16. Johannes Staehelin, Jorg Moder, Andrea K. Weiss, Christof Appenzeller (2002). Long-team ozone trends in Northern mid – latitudes With special emphasis on the contribution of changes in dynamics. Physics and Chemistry of the earth. 17. J. L. Atti, and R. Abida (2004). An observed and analyzed stratospheric ozone intrusion over the high Canadian Arctic UTLS region during the summer of 2003, Advances in Space Research 34. 18. M. Antón, M. López, A. Serrano, M. Bañón, J. A. García (2010). Diurnal variability of total ozone column over Madrid (Spain), Atmospheric Environment. 19. M. Martin, T. Toroshelidze, W. E. Alves, M. G. S Mello, A. A. Guser, G. I. Pugacheva (1999). Solar cycle and global long team variations of stratospheric ozone, Adv Space Res. 20. Matthew R. Bassford, Chris A. McLinden, Kimberly Strong (2001). Zenith-sky observations of stratospheric gases: the sensitivity of air mass factors to geophysical parameters and the influence of troposphere clouds, Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy & Radiative Transfer 68. Mohamed. A (1998). Ozone Layer (Shield of Life) Iran Research Grop. Tehran. Masoodian. A (2006). Synoptic Climatology and its Application in Environmental Studies, Brant Yarnal, Isfahan University. Masoodian. A. Gholizade. M. Mohamadi. B (2008). Cold Winds of Iran (Case Study: Cold Winds of Bahman 1982 Sanandaj) Geographical Research, No. 90. 24. Nasiri. B. Ghaemi. H (1999). Synoptic and Dynamic Patterns Analysis of Karkhe and Dez Floods, Geographical Research, No. 54 & 55. 25. The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and … N. Semane, V. H. Peuch, L. El Amraoui, H. Bencherif, S. Massart, D. Cariolle, Piotr V. Nevodovskiy, Alexsandr V. Morozhenko (2009). Studies of stratospheric ozone layer from near-earth orbit utilizing ultraviolet Polari meter, Acta Astronautica 64. 26. Renata De winter-Sorkina (2001). Impact of ozone layer depletion I: ozone depletion climatology, Atmospheric Environmen. 27. S. Hassanzadeha, F. Hosseinibalama, M. Omidvari (2008). Statistical methods and regression analysis of stratospheric ozone and meteorological variables in Isfahan, Physica A 387. 28. Sophie Godin-Beekmann (2010). Spatial observation of the ozone layer Observation spatial de la couched ozone, C. R. Geosciences 342. 29. Spanani. A (2004). Ozone and its Roll on Earth Life, Geographical Space, No.11. 30. T. Narayana Rao, J. Arvelius, S. Kirkwood, P. von der Gathen (2004). Climatology of ozone in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over the European ArcticAdvances in Space Research 34. 31. V. C. Roldugin, G. N. Nikulin and K. Henriksen (2000). Wave-Like Ozone Movements, Phys. Chem. Earth, vol. 25, No. 5-6. 32. W. J Collins, D. S. Stevenson, C. E. Johmson, R. G. Derwent (2000). The European regional ozone distribution and its links with the global scale for the years 1992 and 2015, Atmospheric Environment. 33. Xihong Wang and Diane V. Michelangeli (2006). A Review of Polar S Stratospheric Cloud Formation China Particulogy, Vol.4, No. 6. چکیده طبیعتگردی فعالیتی غیرمخرب و سودآور است که در دو دههی اخیر به خصوص در کشورهای در حال توسعه مورد استقبال قرار گرفته است. یکی از مناطق بسیار مناسب برای فعالیتهای طبیعتگردی، پارکهای جنگلی است. در این مطالعه به کمک روش فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) و سامانهی اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS) به ارزیابی قابلیت تفرجی پارک جنگلی شهید زارع در شهرستان ساری پرداخته شد. همچنین تقاضای تفرجی در این پارک به روش کلاوسون انجام شد. نتایج ارزیابی قابلیت تفرجی در سطح پارک نشان داد که 02/10 درصد سطح پارک دارای قابلیت تفرجی درجه یک، 9/28 درصد توان درجه دو، 02/41 درصد توان درجه سه و 96/19 درصد سطح پارک توان درجه ‌ی چهار را از نظر تفرجی دارد.

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دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان مجله جغرافیا و توسعه 1735-0735 10 29 2012 12 21 Geography and Development 10nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013 Received : 21/9/2011 Accepted : 17/7/2012 PP : 1- 5 The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Total Ozone Variations in Isfahan Dr. Abbasali Arvin (Spanani) Assistant Professor of Climatology University of Payame Noor تعیین شدت فرسایش با استفاده از مدل¬های Fargas و BLM مورد: حوضه‌ی آبخیز بندره مهدی نوجوان ، دکتر علی‌اصغر محمدی ، دکتر وحید غلامی 119 130 127 10.22111/gdij.2013.127 FA Journal Article 2013 03 02 Geography and Development 10nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013 Received : 21/9/2011 Accepted : 17/7/2012 PP : 1- 5 The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Total Ozone Variations in Isfahan Dr. Abbasali Arvin (Spanani) Assistant Professor of Climatology University of Payame Noor Introduction The ozone layer as a protective shield life on biosphere has very oscillations from view point of quantity and volume. The ozone gases in both troposphere and stratosphere layers have been affecting on human life by two ways. The ozone in stratospheric that its name is surface ozone is an extremely poisonous gases and has destructive affect on lung and plant tissue. The surface ozone has been measured in measurement pollutant stations as one of seven pollutant gases. The ozone gas in stratospheric layer unlike the surface ozone is very necessary for human and other organism lives. The stratospheric ozone is measured in meteorological stations by name of total ozone (TO). Studies show that amount of ozone in stratospheric layer has been reduced. Variations in ozone layer were effected of changing in solar radiation, volcano eruption cosmic dust, meteoric stones and etc. that those get name as natural parameter of ozone changes. Effect of natural parameter concentration on stratospheric ozone lead to fix ozone content in long term (spanani 2004). The amount of ozone in stratospheric layer particularly in the lower stratospheric has considerable oscillations (increase/decrease) under the affection of atmospheric activities . For example V. C. Roldugin (2000) showed that passing the wave crest in the pressure field ceases the convergence of ozone poor air under the tropopause and divergence of ozone rich air above the tropopause and decreases the ozone content. The passing of a wave through simulate the opposite process and increase the ozone content T. Narayana Rao at all (2003) opining that the climatology of ozone clearly shows a significant seasonal cycle with the ozone maxima changing with height. The monthly variability of ozone as well as its seasonal maximum is found near the tropopause. Variation in tropopause height is due mainly to the passage of tropospheric weather systems and is responsible for the large monthly variability of ozone near the tropopause. In the lower stratosphere, inter annual variations are at a maximum in winter and spring, and are the result of variations in wave driven stratospheric circulation, which peaks in winter. Regarding this matter that total ozone have been affected from atmospheric parameter in lower stratosphere or upper troposphere, we decide to study the role of pattern circulation on ozone variations in Isfahan. Research Methodology In this research the environmental to circulation method has been used for synoptic patterns analysis. The mean daily of total ozone (TO) data related to Isfahan ozone survey center in the time period of 2005-2009 were used. From the total 1975 days, 174 days was missing value therefore the daily data of 1801 days (TO) have been used in analysis. The days that (TO) were under 250/above 310Du considered as min/max amount of ozone. The days that (TO) also was around the mean (284 Du) and had highest frequency (274 Du) had been used. Then mean daily of geo-potential height for 100, 300 and 500mb levels for distance of 0 to 80° east and 10° to 70° North was taken from the NCEP/NCAR climatic data center. The 100 and 300mb levels were selected for finding the trough or ridge affect and the 500mb to find the low height (low pressure) or high height (high pressure) have been selected to find atmospheric stability or instability affecting on ozone variation. Correlation methods and multiple liner regression have been used for relation analysis between TO maps and synoptic pattern maps. For this aim, mean daily data of total ozone for distance of geographical 10°*10° degree had been got from the total ozone spectrometer mapping center (NASSA/GSFC). Then the total ozone isolate maps were drawn for days that the total ozone is max, min or high frequency. Then by the use of correlation relation, the total daily amount of ozone and geo potential were analyzed. Discussion and Results The ozone variability depends on the atmospheric activity. Thus it is so variable in winter due to atmospheric instability, high contents in spring due to universal increasing, low variability caused by atmospheric stability in summer and low content cased by the global decrease of ozone in autumn. We review two periods (one of them related to minimum and another to maximum of total ozone (TO) content) of circulation patterns from the 21 periods. The maps of 8 to 10 December 2005 were analyzed as the minimum ozone indicates a stable and calm atmosphere on Iran. On December eighth, a ridge is entering in to Iran at elevation 100 & 300 mb, and includes the negative vortices and anticyclone. In this day the amount of ozone is 236 Du. At December ninth, the ridge pattern is at 100 and 300mb elevation and anticyclone condition , at 500mb elevation is placed on Iran completely and the content of total ozone has decreased to 222Du. Thus in time that ridge axes is at 100 and 300mb elevation and dynamic anticyclone at elevation 500mb is placed on Isfahan completely, the ozone poor air is transferred to Isfahan and the total ozone is decreased to the lowest amount. The maps of 30 March to 1 April 2009 are analyzed as the maximum pattern of TO. An instability atmospheric has overcome on Isfahan in this period. The trough pattern in 100mb and a completely cyclone typical in 500mb that deepens to 300mb level was on Iran that has caused the increase of TO to 349Du. The trough axes in 100mb level and very deep cyclone in 500mb to 300mb level has been set in center of Iran that the TO has increased to 371Du in day 31 March. Amount of 7.4 millimeter rainfall has been recorded in Isfahan meteorological station on 31March. Thus the relation between the daily maps of TO with the pattern of synoptic maps were analyzed through correlation relations. The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and … The analyses show that at he three levels of 100,300 and 500 mb , there are a significant inverse relation between TO and geo-potential height in 0.01 sig level. The most important effective variable in maximum occurrence time is the changes of 100mb level height and in mode occurrence and minimum amount of ozone is the changes of 300 mb level height . Relationship between geo-potential variation and TO content in upper level of troposphere (100 and 300mb) is stronger because density of ozone is higher under the tropopouse. Thus with increase/decrease of geo-potential height (high/low pressure conditions), the TO increase/ decrease simultaneously. Mass effect of three level balance on TO variability is surveyed by linear multiple regression method and show that geo-potential height affect on TO by correlation coefficient of R=0.994, R=0.885 and R=0.897 in order to mod, maximum and minimum of TO occurrences. Thus 89.1%, 80.5% and 78.4% of TO variations is explained by variability of geo-potential height in order mod, maximum and minimum of TO occurrences. Density of ozone iso-path in around of low pressure center in 500mb level show that the TO have been increased with the decrease of atmospheric pressure. Conclusion Our research showed that a part of TO variation in Isfahan correlated with geo-potential height variations in troposphere layer. The occurrence of content min/max of TO has been adapted with ridge/trough pattern in 100 and 300mb levels and dynamic anticyclone/dynamic cyclone in 500mb level. The lowest/highest TO content occurred in time that ridge/trough axes taken place on Iran and Isfahan. TO oscillation is low in warm season and synoptic parameter affect on its variation is very low. Thus atmospheric instability ceased variety and oscillation of TO in cold season but atmospheric stability ceased to fix content of TO in warm season. There is a significant reverse correlation between geo-potential height and content of TO that this relation is stronger in upper level of troposphere. Keywords: Isfahan, Total ozone (TO), Circulation patterns, Stratosphere, Multi variable linear regression. Refrences 1. Spanani, Abbasali (2004). Ozone and its Role in the life of earth, Geographical Space Magazine, No.11. 2. Atayee, Hoshmand (2008). Identification and Analysis of Circular Patterns of ,Middle atmosphere in Heavy precipitation Years of Iran, No.90. 3. Alijani, Bohlool (2006). Synoptic climatology, Samt Publication, Tehran. 4. Mahamed, Ahmad (1998), (1999). Ozone Layer (Shield of Life), Iran Research Group. 5. Masoodian. A (2005). Thirty years ridge of circular patterns of Iran middle atmosphere, Geography and Regional Development Magazine, No.7. 6. Alijani. B (2006). Synoptic Climatology, Samt publication, Tehran. Ataei. H (2008). Recognition and Analysis of circulation pattern middle atmospheric Level in Rainy Region in Iran, Geographical Research, No. 90. 8. Chandramadhab Pal (2010) Variability of total ozone over India and its adjoining regions during 1997-2008, Atmospheric Environment 44. 9. E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, C. Schnadt, T. Egorova, M. Wild, A. Ohmura, V. Zubov, W. Schmutz, Th. Peter (2005). Assessment of the ozone and temperature variability during 1979–1993 with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, Advances in Space Research 35. 10. E. Rozanova, T. Egorovab, W. Schmutzb, Th. Peter (2006). Simulation of the stratospheric ozone and temperature response to the solar irradiance variability during sun rotation cycle, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 68. Ezatian. V. Bagheri. A (2009). Quality Control of Ozone Data By Use of TOMS Spectrometers Data. 4th International Conference of Climate Chang. Ezatian. V. Asadieskoei. E (2010). Application of Statistical Methods in Tropospheric ozone oscillation analysis, Iran Geo-physic Journal. Ghvidelrahimi. Y (2010). Mapping and interpretation of Climate Synoptic by Use of Grads Softward, Sahadanesh, Tehran. Jahanbakhsh. S. Karami. F (1999). Geographical Research, No. 54 & 55. 15. J. Leclair De Bellevuea, J. L. Baraya, S. Baldya, G. Ancelletb, R. Diabc, F. Ravetta (2007). Simulations of stratospheric to tropospheric transport during the tropical cyclone Marlene event, Atmospheric Environment 41. 16. Johannes Staehelin, Jorg Moder, Andrea K. Weiss, Christof Appenzeller (2002). Long-team ozone trends in Northern mid – latitudes With special emphasis on the contribution of changes in dynamics. Physics and Chemistry of the earth. 17. J. L. Atti, and R. Abida (2004). An observed and analyzed stratospheric ozone intrusion over the high Canadian Arctic UTLS region during the summer of 2003, Advances in Space Research 34. 18. M. Antón, M. López, A. Serrano, M. Bañón, J. A. García (2010). Diurnal variability of total ozone column over Madrid (Spain), Atmospheric Environment. 19. M. Martin, T. Toroshelidze, W. E. Alves, M. G. S Mello, A. A. Guser, G. I. Pugacheva (1999). Solar cycle and global long team variations of stratospheric ozone, Adv Space Res. 20. Matthew R. Bassford, Chris A. McLinden, Kimberly Strong (2001). Zenith-sky observations of stratospheric gases: the sensitivity of air mass factors to geophysical parameters and the influence of troposphere clouds, Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy & Radiative Transfer 68. Mohamed. A (1998). Ozone Layer (Shield of Life) Iran Research Grop. Tehran. Masoodian. A (2006). Synoptic Climatology and its Application in Environmental Studies, Brant Yarnal, Isfahan University. Masoodian. A. Gholizade. M. Mohamadi. B (2008). Cold Winds of Iran (Case Study: Cold Winds of Bahman 1982 Sanandaj) Geographical Research, No. 90. 24. Nasiri. B. Ghaemi. H (1999). Synoptic and Dynamic Patterns Analysis of Karkhe and Dez Floods, Geographical Research, No. 54 & 55. 25. The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and … N. Semane, V. H. Peuch, L. El Amraoui, H. Bencherif, S. Massart, D. Cariolle, Piotr V. Nevodovskiy, Alexsandr V. Morozhenko (2009). Studies of stratospheric ozone layer from near-earth orbit utilizing ultraviolet Polari meter, Acta Astronautica 64. 26. Renata De winter-Sorkina (2001). Impact of ozone layer depletion I: ozone depletion climatology, Atmospheric Environmen. 27. S. Hassanzadeha, F. Hosseinibalama, M. Omidvari (2008). Statistical methods and regression analysis of stratospheric ozone and meteorological variables in Isfahan, Physica A 387. 28. Sophie Godin-Beekmann (2010). Spatial observation of the ozone layer Observation spatial de la couched ozone, C. R. Geosciences 342. 29. Spanani. A (2004). Ozone and its Roll on Earth Life, Geographical Space, No.11. 30. T. Narayana Rao, J. Arvelius, S. Kirkwood, P. von der Gathen (2004). Climatology of ozone in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over the European ArcticAdvances in Space Research 34. 31. V. C. Roldugin, G. N. Nikulin and K. Henriksen (2000). Wave-Like Ozone Movements, Phys. Chem. Earth, vol. 25, No. 5-6. 32. W. J Collins, D. S. Stevenson, C. E. Johmson, R. G. Derwent (2000). The European regional ozone distribution and its links with the global scale for the years 1992 and 2015, Atmospheric Environment. 33. Xihong Wang and Diane V. Michelangeli (2006). A Review of Polar S Stratospheric Cloud Formation China Particulogy, Vol.4, No. 6. جغرافیا و توسعه شماره 29 زمستان 1391 وصول مقاله : 29/4/1390 تأیید نهایی : 27/4/1391 صفحات : 130- 119 تعیین شدت فرسایش با استفاده از مدلهای Fargas و BLM مورد: حوضه‌ی آبخیز بندره مهدی نوجوان [1]، دکتر علی‌اصغر محمدی [2]، دکتر وحید غلامی[3] چکیده شناخت مناطق مختلف یک حوضه آبخیز (به عنوان یک واحد طبیعی برنامه‌ریزی) از نظر وقوع فرسایش و شدت آن همواره یکی از مهمترین اهداف کارشناسان منابع طبیعی بوده است. برای رسیدن به این هدف مدلهایی به صورت تجربی ارائه شدهاند که هرکدام دارای نقاط قوت و ضعفی می‌باشند. از جمله مدل‌هایی که در این تحقیق مورد استفاده قرار گرفتهاند مدل‌های Fargas و BLM می‌باشند که در حوضه‌ی آبخیز بندره با سطحی معادل40/28 کیلومتر مربع واقع در استان آذربایجان غربی اجرا شده است. مدل Fargas تنها دو عامل فرسایش‌پذیری نوع سنگ و تراکم زهکشی را در هر واحد سنگی در نظر می‌گیرد در حالی‌که مدل BLM شامل هفت عامل فرسایش سطحی، لاشبرگ سطحی، پوشش سنگی سطح زمین، آثار تخریب در سطح زمین، فرسایش شیاری سطحی، آثار رسوبگذاری حاصل از جریان و توسعه‌ی فرسایش خندقی می‌باشد که برگرفته از تیپ‌های فرسایشی می‌باشد. هدف از تحقیق حاضر بررسی هریک از مدل‌های فوق در منطقه‌ی مورد مطالعه می‌باشد. نتایج حاصل از دو روش نشان داد دو کلاس فرسایش کم و متوسط در سطح حوضه وجود دارد، بطوری‌که در روش Fargas و همکاران 72/9% از سطح حوضه دارای شدت فرسایش کم و 27/90% از حوضه دارای شدت فرسایش متوسط می‌باشد و در روش BLM 63/50% از سطح حوضه‌ی دارای شدت فرسایش کم و 36/49% از سطح حوضه‌ی دارای شدت فرسایش متوسط می‌باشد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد در حدود 206/19% از سطح اراضی با شدت فرسایش کم و 64/54 از سطح اراضی با شدت فرسایش متوسط بوده، بنابراین 85/73% از سطح حوضه مورد مطالعه در روش Fargas و BLM دارای توافق با یکدیگر از نظر شدت فرسایش می‌باشند. [1]-دانشجوی دکتری برنامه‌ریزی محیط زیست، دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران nojavan_mehdi@ut.ac.ir [2]-دکتر آبخیزداری دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران ( نویسنده مسؤول ) aliasgharmohammady@yahoo.com [3]-استادیار دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه گیلان، گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری

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دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان مجله جغرافیا و توسعه 1735-0735 10 29 2012 12 21 Synoptic Analysis of July 2010 Russian Fires and Pakistan Floods Dr. Ghasem Azizi Associate Profesor of Climatology University of Tehran Dr.Aliakbar Shamsipour Assistant Professor of Climatology University of Tehran Morteza Miri Ph.D Student of Climatology University of Tehran واکاوی همدیدی ارتباط آتش‌سوزی‌های ماه ژوئیه 2010 روسیه و سیل پاکستان دکتر قاسم عزیزی ، دکتر علی¬اکبر شمسی¬پور ، مرتضی میری 131 144 128 10.22111/gdij.2013.128 FA Journal Article 2013 03 02 Geography and Development 10nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013 Received : 27/10/2011 Accepted : 17/7/2012 PP : 40 - 43 Synoptic Analysis of July 2010 Russian Fires and Pakistan Floods Dr. Ghasem Azizi Associate Profesor of Climatology University of Tehran Dr.Aliakbar Shamsipour Assistant Professor of Climatology University of Tehran Morteza Miri Ph.D Student of Climatology University of Tehran Introduction Abnormality due to the heat flow of summer2010 impacted on most of Northern Hemisphere including: Russia, Kazakhstan, Iran, Mongolia, China and some parts of European continent. Heat flow and consequently increasing the temperature in Russia began on late June ,with the beginning of summer season, the temperature increase was more severe, and has caused devastating effects such as forest fires of Russia from 31 July around Moscow town. Further, at the same month from 24 of July, upon heavy rains and increasing the water level at Sind basin, the provinces of Baluchistan, Sind, Punjab and Kheibar in Pakistan were flooded. So that, about one fifth of the whole of Pakistan was flooded. Based on the reports published by Pakistan state, the life of about 20,000,000 people was affected by the flood. According to the reports, the total number of people injured in this flood is more than the three events of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami disaster, 2005 Kashmir earthquake and 2010 Haiti earthquake. Damage to the buildings was estimated about US$4 billion, and wheat crop damages were estimated to be about US$500 million. World Meteorological Organization considers the global warming as the main reason for climatic changes and its consequences, such as droughts, floods, fires and heat flows. Research Methodology Unprecedented heat of summer months of 2010 in Russia has caused large and extensive fires in the forests of Moscow West suburbs, at the same time, torrential precipitation occurred in Pakistan. Its causes were analyzed by using the data of Russia meteorological stations (Moscow),(Rostov on Don), (Volgograd) and (Kazan),and Pakistan(Risalpur), (Peshawar), (Murree),and synoptic maps of the ground surface levels of,850,500,250hpa. In this study, the elements of temperature, wind direction and speed, air pressure and geo-potential height at different levels in Russia and Pakistan were studied. Synoptic Analysis of July 2010 Russian Fires and Pakistan Floods Discussion and Results Pakistan and Russia are located in different latitudes and climatic conditions, So that their effective and controller climatic systems are quite different. Pakistan is located in lower latitudes and adjacent to torrid area. Its eastern parts are located on Indian plateau and its west and northern part is located on Iran plateau and Eurasia. It has relatively mild winters and warm summers. Its Northern areas have temperate climates, and southern parts influenced by Southern tropical and Southeast Asia monsoon systems. Central areas have hot summers which their temperature reaches to over 45 C° and Cold winters which the temperature reaches to freezing point. Russia, with more than 17 million square kilometers of area, is the largest country in the world. It is located at high geographical latitudes and most of the country is cold with low precipitation. Therefore most of the areas of the country (especially the grand country Siberia) are empty and Agriculture is impossible. Effective atmospheric systems includes low and high pressures temperate latitudes and adjacent to polar area. Its temperature conditions is known with low and cold temperatures. Although the climatic conditions of each region is under the influenced of several factors and is different from its surrounding areas, but some climate phenomena can operate on a larger scale and in different regions have a common origin. In this study, with regard to the simultaneous occurrence of two climatic phenomenon of severe floods in Pakistan and fires in forests in the west of Russia, it is tried to identify and analyze the synoptic relationship between the two events. Based on time analysis, temperature changes at four considered stations as the West representative stations of Russia's were studied, The annual mean of maximum temperature for June, July, August and September were extracted and calculated from daily data and the required graphs were plotted. Since the fires were started in Russia on late July, the data related to one month prior to the occurrences of this phenomenon were studied. The review of average annual and temperature anomaly of temperature data, the increase of temperature in 2010 is obvious. Based on the calculations, in the study period, temperature increase can be observed in most regions of Russia and Pakistan. Also the review of rainfall data of Pakistan stations in late July showed an increasing trend, So that during three days(27 to 30 July), 400 mm of precipitation is recorded in Sialkot station. While this volume of rainfall occurs on average during 4 months each year .According to analytical maps of different elements of atmospheric analysis at the ground level and upper levels, a low-pressure Centre with 998 hpa central pressure in Pakistan and a high pressure centre with central pressure 1017hpa on the ground surface in Russian has affected on the atmospheric conditions of these areas. Maps of high levels of atmosphere show the presence of blocking system during July. . According to the calculations, the intensity of blocking system was weak (0.76) during the first week of July, but in the next three weeks of July has had a moderate intensity from minimum 2.1 up to maximum 2.85. Conclusion Based on the obtained results, it was cleared that location of Blocking system in the upper levels of atmosphere, on one hand caused by the currents emitted from northern latitudes to warm down areas of Russia and the rotation system causing long lasting accumulation of warm and dry air system in the West with sunny and smooth sky which leads to drastic increase of temperature and widespread fires of late July in Russia. Also moving subtropical high pressure system to high latitudes, causing thermal low pressures on Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. These systems by changing direction and moving toward the North East of its original position, it is extended up to Pakistan. So in contacting with cold air masses which extended under the affection of Blocking system from high latitudes, is strengthened and created the torrential precipitation of Pakistan. Therefore, both of the discussed phenomenon are in relation with each other due to the existing models of atmospheric systems and in particular the occurred blocking phenomenon at high latitudes and show the climatic regional anomalies . Keywords: Flood, Fire, Tmperature and precipitation anomalies, Blocking, Russia and Pakistan. References 1. Azizi Gh (1999). Blocking, Geography Researches Journal, No.39. 2. Azizi Gh, Akbari T, Davudi M, Akbari M, (2009), A Synoptic Analysis of January 2008 Sever Cold in Iran, Geography Researches Journal, No. 70. 3. Babaeian I, Karimian M (2010). akistan floods, effects of climate change in the Polar Regions, climatic research centre. 4. Ching-Sen C and Partners (2009). Investigation of a heavy rainfall event over southwestern Taiwan associated with a sub synoptic cyclone during the 2003 Mei-Yu season, Atmospheric Research Volume 95, Issues 2-3. 5. Ferrarisa L, Realec O, and Turato B. (2001). Synoptic and hydrological analysis of a flood event, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere,Vol 26, Issue 9. 6. Gamble D.W, Meentemeyer, V.G (1997). A synoptic climatology of extreme unseasonable floods in the southeastern United States, 1950-1990, Physical Geography, Volume 18, Issue 6P. 7. Habibi F (2007). The Role of Blocking on Surface Cyclogenesis over East of Mediterranean Sea and its Influence on the March 2003’s Flood over West of Iran, Geography Researches Journal, No. 62. 8. Houze R. A (2010). Anomalous Atmospheric Events Leading to the Summer 2010 Floods in Pakistan, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 9. Jeong J, Park I, Rokjin J, Daeok Y (2008). Effects of Siberian forest fires on air quality in East Asia during May 2003 and its climate implication, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 42, Issue 39 10. Kassomenos P (2010). Synoptic circulation control on wild fire occurrence, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35. 11. 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The natural factors that are responsible for forest fires in the southern Far East, Geography and Natural Resources, Volume 30, Issue 2. چکیده گرمای بی‌سابقه ماه‌های تابستان 2010 در روسیه سبب آتش‌سوزی‌های گسترده در جنگل‌های حومه‌ی غربی مسکو گردید که همزمان بارش‌های سیل‌آسایی در پاکستان رخ داد. علل آن با استفاده از داده‌های ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی روسیه و پاکستان و نقشه‌های همدید ترازهای مختلف جو مورد بررسی و واکاوی قرار گرفت. در مطالعه‌ی موجود، عناصر دما، جهت و سرعت باد، میزان فشار، ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل، در منطقه‌ی روسیه و پاکستان مورد مطالعه قرار گرفتند. بر مبنای محاسبات، در دوره‌ی مورد مطالعه افزایش دما در بیشتر مناطق روسیه و پاکستان مشاهده می‌شود. مطابق با نقشه‌های واکاوی عناصر جوی در سطح زمین و ترازهای بالاتر جو، در پاکستان مرکز کم‌فشاری با فشار مرکزی hpa998 و در روسیه یک مرکز پرفشار با فشار مرکزی hpa1017 در سطح زمین شرایط جوی آن مناطق را تحت تأثیر قرار داده است. نقشه‌های ترازهای بالای جو وجود سامانه بندالی را طیّ ماه ژوئیه نشان می‌دهند. مطابق محاسبات شدت سامانه‌ی بندالی در هفته‌ی اول ژوئیه ضعیف (76/0) بوده و در سه هفته بعدی از شدت متوسطی از کمینه 1/2 تا بیشینه 85/2 برخوردار بوده است. موقعیت مکانی سامانه بندالی در ترازهای بالایی جو باعث گسیل شمال‌سوی جریان‌های گرم عرض‌های جغرافیایی پایین به منطقه‌ی روسیه شده و تناوب زمانی ماندگاری سامانه باعث انباشتگی هوای گرم و خشک در قسمت غرب سامانه همراه با آسمان صاف و آفتابی شده که منجر به افزایش شدید دما و رخداد آتش‌سوزی‌های گسترده اواخر ژوئیه روسیه گردید. همچنین جابجایی سامانه‌ی پرفشار جنب‌حاره به عرض‌های جغرافیایی بالا، باعث شکل‌گیری کم‌فشارهای حرارتی روی دریای عرب و خلیجفارس شده که با تغییر مسیر و حرکت این سامانه‌ها به سمت شمال و شرق موقعیت اولیه‌ی خود، زبانه‌های آن روی پاکستان کشیده شده است. بنابراین در برخورد با توده هوای سردی که تحت تأثیر سامانه بندالی از عرض‌های جغرافیایی بالا گسترش یافته، تقویت شده و بارش‌های سیل‌آسای پاکستان را ایجاد نمودند. لذا هر دو پدیده مورد بحث به واسطه‌ی الگوی سامانه‌های جوی موجود و بویژه پدیده‌ی بندالی رخداده در عرض‌های بالا در ارتباط هم بوده و ناهنجاری منطقه‌ای اقلیم را نمایان می‌سازد.

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