فرصت¬ها و چالش¬های ژئوپلیتیک جمهوری اسلامی ایران در بازارهای گاز طبیعی دکتر یدا... کریمی پور

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

10.22111/gdij.2012.275

چکیده

خردمندانه­ی اقتصادی در بازارهای گاز طبیعی ومایع است. در این ارتباط، پس از نگاهی کوتاه بر ادبیات مورد نظر و نقش گسترش یابنده و حساس گاز طبیعی در اقتصاد انرژی، فرصت­ها، تنگناها و مشکلات ایران به عنوان دومین دارنده­ی ذخایر گاز طبیعی جهان برای کسب برتری، دستیابی یا نفوذ در پنج بازار عمده و مقیاس کلان کنونی جهان، شامل بازارهای شبه­قاره، خاور دورپیشرفته، خلیج­فارس، چین و اروپا، مورد بررسی و ارزیابی بوده است. دستاوردهای محوری و مستند این مقاله، بر پایه روش، داده­ها و منابع معتبر، در جهت فراهم­سازی پرسش کلیدی این پژوهش، فرصت­ها و چالش­های پایه­ای ژئوپلیتیکی جمهوری اسلامی ایران برای کسب برتری یا دست کم نفوذ پاسخ به پرسش اصلی پژوهش، در برگیرنده موارد زیر است:
1- کوشش­های دو دهه­ای جمهوری اسلامی ایران برای دستیابی به بازار شبه­قاره­هند در قالب خط لوله صلح، چندان کارایی ندارد.
2- راهبرد نفوذ در بازار LNG [1] کره جنوبی، ژاپن و چین، با چند چالش بزرگ ژئوپلیتیکی مواجه است.
3- بازار خلیج­فارس گرچه زنده و پویا است، اما از دیدگاه نرخ تقاضا و برخی مؤلفه­های دیگر، استراتژیک نیست.
4- اروپا در بردارنده­ی بیشترین شاخص­های یک بازار استراتژیک،پایدار و گسترش یابنده بوده و بدون تردید می­بایست در اولویّت نخست بازارهای گازی ایران قرار گیرد.
5- هرچند جمهوری­اسلامی ایران پیش­وبیش از اندیشیدن درمورد این بازارها، می­بایست در وهله­ی نخست از کشوری واردکننده گاز طبیعی، به کشوری صادرکننده تبدیل گردد.




کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Geopllitical Opportunities and Challenges of the Islamic Republic of IRAN in the Markets of Natural Gas Dr. Yadollah Karimipour Associate Professor of Political Geography University of Tarbiyate Moallem, Tehran

چکیده [English]

Introduction
In order to reduce the country’s dependence on oil revenues and develop new sources of foreign exchange earnings, using its great potential of natural gas resources and preserve and broaden its    geo-economic role in the region and the world, the Islamic Republic of Iran should implement a   high-profit, low-risk, and reliable trading strategy for macro scale selling of its natural gas. The main question of this paper is that, among the five major trading markets, namely the Persian Gulf, Indian Subcontinent, East Asia, China, and Europe, which one has  the above said strategic features and criteria.
The following four concerns restrict Iran’s ability to reach/participate in the natural gas market:
1-      ever-tightening intentional sanctions, especially by North America and the European Union, and most recently by East Asia;
2-      The slow production cycle of natural gas, especially in marine fields, including in the South Pars Gas Condensate Field;
3-      Iran’s major flaws in the LGN production technology and  great lags from Qatar; and
4-      Lack of the required investment for operating production cycle, in comparison with other competitors in the market.
This article studies the target markets of the Islamic Republic of Iran by considering these limitations
 
Research Methodology
This article by implementing analytical – descriptive method and by referring to library, documentary and first hand reports specifies the Islamic Republic’s challenges for entering in to natural gas markets and seeks appropriate answers to this fundamental question of the article. This article is largely influenced by the methods and outcomes of Mert Bilgin’s research methodology, which is published in  the paper named“Geopolitics of European dependence on  natural gas and Energy politics magazine( spring 2009).
 
Discussion and Results
The researcher, based on the  documents and  statistical analysis approves that the subcontinent market( pipe line of peace ) in not considered  strategic  for Iran due to  the political tensions between India and Pakistan, insecure pipeline routes, poverty of original countries from the view point of foreign currency payments, and seemingly insoluble India-Pakistan disputes over trade rules.





 
The Geopllitical Opportunities and Challenges of the Islamic  ...
 
 
 
 





Also from this view, the markets of southern countries of Persian Gulf is not a strategic market for Iran due to the smallness of markets, dependency of the domestic industry of these countries on the state subsides, complicated and various discrepancies between Iran and these countries, and also the existence of Qatar as the holder of the third largest natural gas resources in the world.
Furthermore, LNG market of the East Asia, which includes Japan and Korea, seems unattainable for Iran up to a foreseeable future, because of great lag of Iran from Qatar, widespread sanctions, seclusion of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Also the China market cannot be a substantial market for the natural gas of Iran due to some reasons including great distance from Iran, time lag of Iran in comparing with the other exporter countries.
Meanwhile, at the present time, Iran for entering in to the world markets as the second holder of natural gas reserves in the world and selecting a proper market, must overcome to its most fundamental problem i.e. low production. Among all of the countries with natural gas reserves, Iran has the lowest reserves-to-production ratio.
Also the Islamic Republic, in its shared fields in the Persian Gulf with Qatar, Kuwait, and in the Caspian Sea with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan has a weak place from the view point of investment, technology and advancement of logistics.
 
Conclusion
From the view point of this research, the European Union market for natural gas market is the most strategic and lucrative one for Iran, since:
1-      Europe seeks to diversify its sources of natural gas imports in order to reduce its reliance on Russia;
2-      Iran-Europe pipeline is shorter and has fewer geopolitical complications in comparison;
3-      the European market is an advanced market with growing demand for imported energy; and
4-      Europe is the safest pipeline route.
Consequently, the Islamic Republic of Iran should recognize the undeniable importance of European Union among its natural gas markets.
 
Keywords: Geopolitical chances, Geopolitical challenges, Natural gas market, Geo economy, Nabokov, Peace pipe line, Iran embargo
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کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Geopolitical chances
  • Geopolitical challenges
  • Natural gas market
  • Geo economy
  • Nabokov
  • Peace pipe line
  • Iran embargo